My 2TB external drive is not full, but Time Machine thinks it is

If Time Machine really is deleting the oldest backups as it goes, then why am I suddenly getting this error message?
The external drive dedicated strictly to Time Machine use is 2TB in size, and it's been running fine for almost a year until now.  What gives?

Here's what Time Machine looks like as it starts ...
... and here's what happens shortly afterward:
Now why it's showing no backups at all on a supposedly empty hard drive (when it's getting ready to run) is odd enough, but then halting and saying the **** hard drive's full is extremely strange.  Both cannot be simultaneously true.
What the heck's going on?

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