Automatic forecast model selection in DP

Hello Gurus,
We would like to use the automatic forecast selection now, and wewould like to have either the automatic model section 1 with str 50 or the automatic model selection 2 with str 56.
can any one explain me what is the difference betwee automatic model selection 1 with forecast strategy 50 and automatic model selection 2 with forecast strategy 56.
what is the exact different between the above two?

Hi,
Automatic model selection procedure 1 is used in forecast strategies 50, 51, 52, 53, 54 and 55.
Automatic Model selection procedure 2 is used in forecast strategy 56.
Procedure 1 executes Seasonal and Trend tests and if neitehr of these are postive then constant model is checked. For Procedure 1 , is to recommended to be used without outlier control.
Procedure 2 executes using Constant, trend, seasonal and seasonal trend model. For procedure 2, we must remember that when you use the outlier correction, the results are not comparable with the results of the individual processes, since another procedure can be selected for the outlier correction than for the final forecast.
Linear regression and seasonal linear regression are added to automatic model selection 2 . In addition , a trend test, a seasonal test and a test of white nosie are introduced in model selection 2.
*Further the way series of tests are carried out is different for the two procedures and this is explained in SAP Help .
*http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/19/98ad1765354d7ba54b1eb164c377e0/frameset.htm
Hope this gives you insight.
Regards
Datta

Similar Messages

Automatic forecast model determination

Hi everyone, I would appreciate a lot if you can help with the following problem: in order to apply the automatic determination of the forecast model in the materials master, what other requirements are neccesary, besides that the forecast model 'J' is placed in the forecast view?, since I've been carrying out some tests of this type of automatic forecast, and apparently it only results to detect trend and constants models, but not seasonal, although, for this last type of model, also I have dealed with fields in the forecast view of material master, such as Historial Periods, Periods by Seadon, Forecast Periods, and Model Selection. When I have an historical one of consumptions with seasonal flow, if I do it with automatic forecast model, it does not detect no seasonal flow, reason why it considers a constant model. However, if I place manually that the model is seasonal, the forecast works in a correct form.
There is something that I'm avoiding in the configuration or in the updating of the materials master?
From already thank you very much.
Regards.
Luis Carbajal

Hi,
Automatic model selection procedure 1 is used in forecast strategies 50, 51, 52, 53, 54 and 55.
Automatic Model selection procedure 2 is used in forecast strategy 56.
Procedure 1 executes Seasonal and Trend tests and if neitehr of these are postive then constant model is checked. For Procedure 1 , is to recommended to be used without outlier control.
Procedure 2 executes using Constant, trend, seasonal and seasonal trend model. For procedure 2, we must remember that when you use the outlier correction, the results are not comparable with the results of the individual processes, since another procedure can be selected for the outlier correction than for the final forecast.
Linear regression and seasonal linear regression are added to automatic model selection 2 . In addition , a trend test, a seasonal test and a test of white nosie are introduced in model selection 2.
*Further the way series of tests are carried out is different for the two procedures and this is explained in SAP Help .
*http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/19/98ad1765354d7ba54b1eb164c377e0/frameset.htm
Hope this gives you insight.
Regards
Datta

Finding the forecasting model selected by Model 56

Hi,
If I use statistical model 56 and run statistical forecasting, how do I know strategy 56 is finally selecting? I see the errors and the parameters when I click the "forecast comparison" icon. But I wan to know which model the system finally selected? Is there any tale that tells me that?
How do I do the assignment of forecasting model to a selection id and forecast and see the results in the background? ANy tables, programs???
Thanks.

Hi Sinivas,
Thanks for the reply. But I am asking is to see what model 56 finally decides to go with? I mean trend or seasonal or....how can I know that the automatic model has selected a particular model after testing for all the models.
Hope this is clear.

Forecast model selection

hi.
can anyone pls explain me how the fcst models are selected during DP implementation. especially when we have ovet 1000 products and when users have no knowledge abt forecasting.
thanks

5,
During auto model selection, each forecasted object is first initialized, then analyzed, then forecasted, individually.
at this moment i'm not interested in automodel selection
No problem; just pick one of the simplest models, such as 'Constant' or 'Trend'. You already said that the client's users are not familiar with forecasting, so they don't really have any business requirement to fill; they won't care as long as they get a forecast.
I recommend that you not lose a lot of sleep on this issue. This is not like other implementations you may have done, where the results must strictly meet certain business rules. In the end, the output is just a forecast, a prediction of the future. The forecast will be wrong no matter what you do, since humans cannot predict the future. At least the ones that I know cannot......
Best Regards,
DB49

Navigation attribute as selection criteria for automatic forecast model

Hello Experts,
I have a requirement like this.
In Transaction /SAPAPO/MSDP_FCST2, I enter a planning area and click execute.
Then I create a selection (using selection management button). But here I am not able to see the navigational attributes as a selection field.
Could you please let me know how I could use this as a selection criteria?
Can I use the method SEL_CHANGE of the BADI /SAPAPO/SDP_FCST5 for implementing this?
Please suggest.
Thanks,
Suresh

Hi Manimaran,
Thanks for your reply!
I hope you could have created a selection using the Create Activity and assign activity to a job. And during this part, for assigning the selection to the job, we could use the selection created in Interactive planning - Tcode /SAPAPO/SDP94.
The problem is what if the planners are not given authorization for the creating the job or activity. And what if the planners do the model fitting for a product/location and he wants to exclude it from the selection.
Thanks and Best Regards,
Suresh

Which Forecasting Model/ Forecasting Stratergy is suitable for Steel Plant

Hello Friends,
Could you pl suggest me Which Forecasting Model/ Forecasting Stratergy is suitable for Steel Plant.Any one having the steel plant experiance pl suggest me .
Edited by: sivaram2411 on Jan 19, 2011 6:37 AM

Hi Sivaram,
I haven't worked in Steel but worked in Cement industry. Cement is another input to construction industry, just like steel. In India, both have seasonal demand. But I would give a generic suggestion here, though you can check with your network in other steel companies having similar product offering as yours, about the forecasting model they follow.
Choice of forecasting model is not industry dependent. Because within the same industry, each player has a different product mix, different set of customers and in different geograhies. Forecasting model is selected based on the analysis of historical data. So you can take last 2 years available data to start with.
Demand Planning provides the following statistical forecasting models: constant model, trend model, seasonal model, trend and seasonal model, Croston method with exponential smoothing, linear regression, and causal models with multiple linear regression (MLR).
Time series models are the most commonly used forecasting methods.
The flow chart is like this:
Raw Data collection --> Data analysis --> Analyzed data --> Forecasting Model selection
You can use plotting as a method of Data analysis,
We need to find the best forecasting model, so that it gives us the most accurate demand. There is no systematic approach for the selection of a forecasting model and you need to find the best for you by trial and error.
The following factors impact the model selection: (1) Forecast Horizon (2) Data Availability / Requirements (3) Pattern of Past Data (4) Level of Detail in the Forecast (5) Cost Factors (6) Accuracy and (7) Ease of Application.
So use the historical data, analyse it, try using the available forecasting methods one by one to forecast for a period during which the actual data is already available with you and find the one which is best matching the actual figures. The model giving most accurate results, or the one with least forecast error, would be the one you are looking for.

Model Selection field in Forecasting tab of Material Master

It is used for automatic model selection in forecasting...
Is there a config that can turn this field on or off?

Hi,
You have to maintain the forecast profile with automatic model selection and maintain these for the parts while maintaining the forecasting view material master.
You can create forecast profile from MP80.
Now whenever you perform the forecast then these profile will be checked and forecast will pick up automatic model.
Regards
TAJUDDIN

Forecast model changing

Hi
For a material in material master iam maintaining forecast model as "J".
The other parameters maintained are:
selection procedure-2
tracking limit-4
reset automatically- is checked
model selection-A
ALPHA FACTOR AND GAMMA FACTOR MAINTAINED
initialization-X
Now when i run the program RMPROG00, then in isee that the forecast model changes to "blank" or "D", "S". pls tell me how this change is happening?

Hello Dinakar,
I am also facing the similar issue, Are you able to get rid of this issue.
regards,
JPS

Forecasting Models in Demand Planning.

Hi experts,
want to know in details and also to practice various forecasting models in Demand Planning, from beginning.
please suggest.
Regards
Bhupendra

Hi Bhupendra,
There are various forecasting models to use in business like automatic model and manual model as a broad category.
In detailed, there are models like constant model, trend model, season models, trend seasonal etc.,
Forecasting models are very simple and mostly based on STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES. If you have sound knowledge in various statistical methodologies, it will be very easy to followup all the models.
Moreover, while selecting the best model for an organisation, one needs to study and identify the key performance indicators for improvement and accordingly the forecast model needs to be aligned.
The method to find this kind of model is the BEST FIT METHOD (it could be one or more or combo of it).
In demo systems or sandbox system, you can populate various data with various models and try to analyse the one which satisfies business requirements. You can also take the help of BUSINESS PLANNING ANALYSER to build the customised forecasting model which can be part of business side or from consulting side.
Regards
R. Senthil Mareeswaran.

Forecast Modeling in Oracle

In 11i, can you develop model specifications by item? It appears whatever model you select gets imposed on every SKU and customer. What if you want to adjust the model specification by SKU or a group of skus?

Hi Mark,
just to be clear - the standard automatic forecast method in ODP will apply each method (and multiple variations of each of those methods) to each item at the forecast generation level. The system will select what it deems to be the best fit and will apply it. So the result of the automatic foreacast will be the most appropriate methodolgy (at least found within the restrictions of the Geneva Engine - obviously) for each item. The idea is that you don't have to then create myriads of other specific forecast measures in order to get the optimum.
Of course, building myriads of forecast versions will enable you to determine the variances to automatic. This then means you can then check that the automatic forecast is working properly and also enable analysis against actuals and therefore the building of better forecasts... which can potentially mean an ever increasing number of forecast measures that will consume disk space until the cows come home. This makes sense during CRP or User Acceptance but in the Live environment less is definitely better. Anyway, I have found that on the whole, the users are not interested in creating gazillions of measures to eat up IT infrastructure - they just want one line to adjust before the cycle ends.
You can create a subset of data (in a measure - of course) and then create a Forecast based on that measure - so you could create myriads of small measures if you wanted to. You could also create some events that contain the SKU items in the shape that you wish and then apply them to certain measures. Otherwise - get a bigger box.
Nice website BTW.
Regards
Simon.

DP - Forecasting Models

hi
I need to work on forecasting models in my project. I read a lot of times on this subject various articles. I am still not understanding clearly the terms like Basic, trend, initialisation, Ex-forecast.. Is Ex Forecast generated by system automatically ? if so, what we should interpret from that ? its the forecast run in the past for comparison purposes. So if i run a forecast last month (oct 07) becomes ex forecast in Nov 07 ? What & How to do the Initialization ?
Hope someone can pass the light on this
thanks
venkatesh

Hi Venkat,
The basic idea behind using a statistical model is to analyze the historical sales trend and find a analogous mathematical equation there y use statistics to solve the equation. This equation depending on how the trend is have few constants. Like an equation y=ax1bx2cx3+..... where y is your forecast and x1, x2 and so on are independent variables and a,b,c,d are all constants.
The statistical models here are using apha, beta, gamma and permo in place of these a,b,c,d. These indexes are used based on the curve.
alpha index for basic value
Beta index for Trend
Gamma index for seasonal
persmo index for outliers
Any curve always has basic value as it has to define where it starts from the base. If the curve is heading up or down, it has a trend (upward or downward) value. If the curve has a seasonal behavior like a sine or cosine curve, it also has a seasonal index associated with it.
Basic: This value decides the vertical placement of the curve with respect to base. Higher the alpha(basic), higher the curve with respect to horizontal axis.
Trend: Specifies the slope of the line
Seasonal: Specifies divergence from basic value.
Ex-post forecast: In the history available, you date back some time and consider part of the history as future. Then the history before this so considered forecast is used to forecast the future. You get a future curve and value. But you already have the future as it is history. This helps you compare the effectiveness of the forecasting model.
Read this
<a href="https://www.sdn.sap.comhttp://www.sdn.sap.comhttp://www.sdn.sap.com/irj/servlet/prt/portal/prtroot/docs/library/uuid/7a4025f8-0a01-0010-0fb2-b7ab22597675">document</a>
This is the best source.
If you select the ex-post forecast in univariate forecast profile, the system calculates the expost forecast and can be displayed below the history to compare.
Hope this helps.

Calculation of Safety Stock and Reorder Point under Forecast Model T

Hi Gurus!
Happy Holiday!
I would like to ask for your assistance on how the the safety stock and reorder point was calculated with the following values available. I would really appreciate it if you could give me details on the calculation.
Below are the values:
Basic data
Forecast date        01.12.2009        Unit                  CTN
Forecast model       T                 Service level         0.0
Period indicator     M                 Paramtr profile
Control data
Initialization                                Tracking limit        4.000
Model selection      A                 Procedure selection   2
Parameter optimizatio                Optimization level    F
Alpha factor         0,10               Beta factor           0,10
Gamma factor       0,00              Delta factor          0,30
Basic value           5.464-           Trend value          5.603-
MAD                      4.758            Error total              4.722
Safety stock         1                   Reorder pnt.          1
No. of values
Consumption           6                Forecast periods       1
Initial. periods      0                Fixed periods          0
Periods per season   12
Historical data
Period                Original     Corrected value
11.2009                3.000              3.000
10.2009                0.000              0.000
09.2009                0.000              0.000
08.2009                9.000              9.000
07.2009               21.000             21.000
06.2009               20.300             20.300
Forecast results
Period                Original     Corrected value
12.2009                0.000              0.000
Appreciate your assistance!
Thank you and Happy Holidays!
Ji

Sweth, you are asking for consulting, and in my opinion it is way beyond what can or should be reasonable to achieve in such a forum. You are asking complex questions, that most probable have more than one possible answer.
I suggest that you get on-site help from a knowledgeable and experienced consultant. These are crucial business issues, and should be dealt seriously.

Several forecast models

Hi,
I need to see the result of several forecast models. how to do it ?
Do I need to create n number of forecast profie to see the result of n number of forecast models or in one profile I can see the result of n number of forecast models.
Thanks a lot in advance,
Prabhat

Hi Senthil,
Thanks for your answer. I am getting lot of help from you.
You are correct that in the second tab we can change the models and see the different result based on the model we select.
But the thing is - there we have only few models to select for but when we create the forecast profile we get lot of options to select the forecast model.
Is it possible to to show the result of various forecast models under one forecast profile.or Do I need create multiple forecast profile for multiple models.
Thanks once again for your support.
Thanks,
Prabhat

Best way to know correct forecast model - process chain set up with multiple forecast models

Hi Experts,
I need your help in selecting best forecast model for our company. We have some of the models already used for our company, and because of multiple models used it is taking very long time for process chain to finish. There is no existing documentation available on which model was used why initially. Please help me to make out forecasting process smooth.
- What is the best way to know, which forecast model is correct and should be used for our forecasting process.
- In case multiple forecasting models are really required to be used, please suggest ways to optimally schedule them in process chain.
- At times we get messages like "not enough data available" for specific model - any way to avoid this.
- How to optimally use parallel processing profiles forecasting process in process chain.
- Things which should be avoided.
Request your help, please share your experiences.
Regards
NB

Hi Neelesh,
There are many points you need to consider to redesign forecast process for your company/client.
You need to select the best suited forecast model first depending on the business. This has to be well tested & agreed by business users. Complexity will be an outcome of this exercise with business users. Best id to give then a brief intro on all available models & then help them selection the best one as per their requirement.
Auto selection models are generally more time taking & should be used only when you have no idea at all on the business/demand pattern.
Run time will depend how you are clubbing the CVCs to get the forecast generated & also parallel processing. For parallel processing profile you will need to do trial & error testing along with help from Basis team on how many free dial up processes are available.
Even you can run many forecast calculations in parallel if the product/cvcs are totally different. - As per my personal experience maximum run time reduction can be achieved here.
Daily run is not advisable except only for businesses where you have too much dynamism in demand planning i.e. you expect the demands to be changed overnight. Most of the companies run forecast on monthly basis or at weekly basis at the max.
"Not Enough data" will be a problem if you are having the irrelevant models used in forecast profiles. This means users are not bothered to maintain the needed data for he forecast calculations or they are not aware at all of the situation. Running such models on daily basis is not advised at all. Better users should use interactive forecasting & saving the results in such cases.
Just to give a crude example we get forecast calculated on monthly basis for approximately 4 lac cvcs in less than 3 hrs using moving avg, seasonal linear regression, seasonal trend, croston models. We use parallel profiles also everywhere with 10 blocks & 500 cvc/block.
Hope this helps. Let me know if you have nay more questions & also the results using any of this.
Regards,
Rahul

Forecast Model in Demand planning and E book Sap trainingcourse

Dear Experts ,
I am Exploring differnt Forecast Model , like constant
model, trend model, seasonal model, trend and seasonal model, Croston method
with exponential smoothing, linear regression, and causal models with multiple
linear regression (MLR).
is there any SAP links or material or course availabe to learn more about Forecasting Techniques that we can use in Demand Planning in APO
if you have idea please help me to learn .. i am really starving for this techniques
Thanks in advance
Cheers & Thanks
Raj

Hi Raj
Below link will give you entire information on forecasting models, forecasting accuracy technequues etc,:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/33/437a37b70cf273e10000009b38f8cf/frameset.htm
For MLR refer the following link:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/ac/216ba4337b11d398290000e8a49608/frameset.htm
Which is the best model to use:
You should try running forecasting using various model(seasonal, seasonal linear, linear, constant etc) and comapre
the forecast accuracy and find out which one is the best suitable.
Another way is to choose auto model which will select the best possible forecast strategy and give the result.
I hope thos will help you.
Please let us know if you require any more information.
Thanks
Amol

Automatic forecast model selection in DP

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