Backup going nuts

I've posted questions about this problem with the backup (under 10.8.3) and watching it discovered that while normally the backup takes 3-5 minutes and occasionally 5-10 minutes for large updates of applications, every few days the backup will go nuts and backup 25-50 GBytes. The console logs will show the normal 2-4 GBytes required for padding for 200-1,000 MBytes of files but then just keep going for an hour or two before stopping for no obvious or apparent reason. I've deleted the .v100 file on the TC, move the disk out and back in the spotlight, done checks of the sparsebundle, etc. and nothing indicates anything is wrong.
It would be nice if someone would make some suggestions what's left to check to determine why the backup is going nuts every 3-4 days and eating lots of unncessary disk space. The backup got better under 10.8.3 but this is still an issue which needs explanation since the log and the backup don't match.

Does anyone know how to see what the backup is doing or what it's backing up? For the fourth time in 10 days it wrote the lines for the latest example:
Found 99 files (2.2 MB) needing backup
2.88 GB required (including padding), 533 GB avaiilable
And then it went and ran for two hours to backup up over 50 GBytes of what I don't know.
This is what it does every time and it's not consistent when it does it except it's every 3-4 days. I realize it's not really important since it deletes space to do a backup when the HD runs out of space, but doing these backups and deleting the space when it's full interfers with the disk usage and network resources with other applications running. It doesn't matter if I turn the backup off because it resumes where it was when I turn it back on.

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