Backup going onto 3 hours now

Doing a simple backup/sync so I can prep myself for the delivery of my iPhone 4, since I haven't done a backup in ages because it always takes half a lifetime just to get through the backup. It looks like it's about 3/4 of the way done (it's just past the ellipses), hopefully it will finish before I go to bed. Doubtful. Why does it take so long to do a simple backup?

I have not had a backup take shorter than an hour going back to my original iPhone. I'd try to do it daily if I could be assured it would indeed take a short amount of time, which I am not confident it will do.
The iPhone is a 16GB and is about half full. The computer is brand new running Windows 7. Occam's razor would tell me it's a problem with the actual backup process itself.

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