"backup is too large" warning, yet I can't see old backups in time machine.

I plugged my Firelite drive into my Macbook Pro and was warned that I haven't backed up in 50 days (not so). When I try to back up I get a warning that there's not enough space on the external disk. When I enter time machine there are NO previous restore points visible, yet they are there when I open the backup disk in the finder. It seems it's trying to back up my entire system into the remaining free disk space instead of running the incremental backup it's supposed to be doing.
Is there any way to fix this? I know the simple answer is to buy a bigger backup volume but I don't see why I need to, since I didn't really change much between this and the most recent backup. Restart changes nothing.

Thanks James, great info.
When I hold down the option key I find that there are 2 drives listed. One is the backup with my computer's name "trilobite" and the other is called "trilobite 2". Choosing the proper drive reveals all my previous backups. The finder also shows the a folder on the disk called "trilobite 2" but when I delete it, TM just creates another.
Working through your suggestions, I just realized that the videocard/logic board replacement I had on Jan.12 may certainly have been a factor. I had a lot of video issues on Jan.2 and was restarting and zapping the PRAM etc. over and over (successful backups stopped on that day). Funny, TM never complained of any difficulties.
Since I don't have any recent backups anyway, I guess I'll just try erasing the whole backup disk and reset TM.
Here is the TM widget log:
Starting standard backup
Backing up to: /Volumes/GUMBY/Backups.backupdb
Event store UUIDs don't match for volume: POKEY
Backup content size: 139.0 GB excluded items size: 7.0 MB for volume POKEY
Starting pre-backup thinning: 166.90 GB requested (including padding), 26.25 GB available
No expired backups exist - deleting oldest backups to make room
Error: backup disk is full - all 0 possible backups were removed, but space is still needed.
Backup Failed: unable to free 166.90 GB needed space
Backup failed with error: Not enough available disk space on the target volume.

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