Demand planning Forecast errors and KPI to store results of error

I have following requirement: keep traceabilitity of hypothesis and forecast error results of former mass process .
In comparison tool, we can compare the result of last interactive forecast run but our requirement is to store those result for KPI purpose.
Is it possible without extra development ? ( built not yet done, we are in design phase)
Kinds regards,
Christine

Hi Christine,
There is Standard Error analysis functionality available for forecast accuracy reporting.
Please refer to the URL below:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/6f/8812ce03ba4f0ca09ea31a1a3e1f0c/frameset.htm
Please check if these are sufficient for your business needs.
If we want to extarct standard statistical forecast errors( like MAD, MAPE) calculated in the interactive or batch runs of statistical forecasting , then, to my understanding, development is required. A short detail is given below:
We need to develop macros for calculation of Univariate forecast erros : MAD and MAPE. New planning book and data views may be required to becreated Some extra Key figures also will be needed ,used for storing the values.
The macros runs can be run through batch jobs.These calculated forecast errors of MAD and MAPE then can be compared with the system calculated MAD and MAPE during interactive / batch runs.
The error data can be extracted and stored in the infocubes.
Please check and confirm.
Regards
Datta

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Demand Planning - Forecast Profile .

Hi SAP GURUS,
Need to modify the Forecast Profile for to have different weightages for each month because of holidays and different working days.
Any solutions for modifications.
Thank you
Rahul Chitte

Hi Rahul :
There is a fetaure called "Workday adjustments" which you can use to account for varying no of workdays in a month .
System claculates statistical forecast baased on avergae no of days in a month . You speicfy this in average no of days in vnivariate forecfast profile . The no of workdays in any month is determined by factory calenadr in planning area . System adjusts the uncorrected forecast based on following formula
Corrected forecast = (uncorrected forecast/average no of days) * actual no of days .
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SAP ERP - Demand Planning and Forecasting

Dear all,
my customer is a wholesale company. They want to use a component in SAP ERP (not SAP APO), in order to make demanding planning and forecasting for the materials , quantities and dates they should make the purchases in order to cover the demand of their customers. What is the component that should be used in order to achieve this?

MRP can be used without production planning. SOP and Demand Management are not Production.
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Forecast Model in Demand planning and E book Sap trainingcourse

Dear Experts ,
I am Exploring differnt Forecast Model , like constant
model, trend model, seasonal model, trend and seasonal model, Croston method
with exponential smoothing, linear regression, and causal models with multiple
linear regression (MLR).
is there any SAP links or material or course availabe to learn more about Forecasting Techniques that we can use in Demand Planning in APO
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Thanks in advance
Cheers & Thanks
Raj

Hi Raj
Below link will give you entire information on forecasting models, forecasting accuracy technequues etc,:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/33/437a37b70cf273e10000009b38f8cf/frameset.htm
For MLR refer the following link:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/ac/216ba4337b11d398290000e8a49608/frameset.htm
Which is the best model to use:
You should try running forecasting using various model(seasonal, seasonal linear, linear, constant etc) and comapre
the forecast accuracy and find out which one is the best suitable.
Another way is to choose auto model which will select the best possible forecast strategy and give the result.
I hope thos will help you.
Please let us know if you require any more information.
Thanks
Amol

Spare parts Demand Planning and Forecasting SCM

Hi ,
I am APO DP consultant can any body help me on questions on AS-IS and To-Be analysis Of Spare Parts Demand Planning and forecasting in SAP SCM.
If You have any Documents or links or nay information on these please give replay.
Ram

Dear Ram..
SPP is purely base on BOD (Bill of Distribution)..
following are the points u can cover in AS is TOBE..
1. On what Level (Chs) the Client performing Spare Parts Planning?nd how u want to disagreegate on lowest level ie.Hierarchy Level?
Ex. from Region..to Branch..to ..Customer..
2. Have u configured Spare Parts in R/3?
3. What is the Pattern of Sales History?Seasonal/Trend/Constant etc?
4. u can ask questions on Deployment...Inventory?
5. What is the Lead Time for Procurement?Distribution?Transportation?
for more details...
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/a3/7ed240caeb752ae10000000a155106/frameset.htm
Rajesh Patil
SPINNOVATION

Interactive demand planning -statistical forecasting error

Hell APO DP experts,
We are implementing CBF functionality in demand planning. In /SAPAPO/SDP94 - Interactive Demand Planning, when we try to run forecast we are getting a message:
Not possible to carry out the forecast - no historical data
Message no. /SAPAPO/MA502
although the historical data is there.
Any info on this?
Regards
Pandit

Hi,
If you are working on SAP APO 4.0/4.1,
Check OSS Note 790517 - No error message "No historical data available".
Implement the corrections as mentioned in the message.
Warm regards,
Prem

How to configure for the give senario where we from APO demand planning, we provide baseline forecast into TPM

Hello Guru's,
Request for information on smart documentation on the integration between Trade Promotion Management and SCM-Demand Planning from an architecture perspective how to configure for the give senario where we from APO demand planning, we provide baseline forecast into TPM and from TPM promotions values can be considered in to APO demand planning: can anybody give me some insight on it.
Thanks in advance.
Kumar

Hi Praveen
There are several ways you can connect a DP system to a TPM. How are your interfaces and systems setup?
Option1:
Extract the baseline from APO to a BW cube, extract the data out of BW, may be using infospokes/open hub and pass it on to TPM.
2. Have a custom program written in APO-DP to extract the selected keyfigure data at the aggregation level into an interface or a .txt file into APO directory and use some data transfer service such as EDI to take this data and send to TPM.
In my experience it is simple to define an integration process. The much larger and complicated aspects are the date adjustments and the aggregation levels.
Date adjustments:
Understand the basis of the data in APO and TPM. APO is usually at the requested delivery date or material availability date ( when the customer like a store wants the product). However TPMs are usually at the consumption date ( when an end customer like you and me but from store shelf). Depending on the product and business style this can mean several days difference. Let's say it is 25 days on average, you need to add 25 days to APO base line date to get the TPM consumption date.
Aggregation level:
This can be product or customer. If the planning in DP is at product sku level and the TPM is at packs or brand level, you need to aggregate the data up before loading to TPM. The same with customer.
To me the most complex part of the integration is to understand and transform the data in a meaningful way and a strategy to sustain this integration by keeping both DP and TPM in sync in terms of master data. Also important to have a process for identifying exceptions and failures. you send baseline from DP to TPM and if it fails, how do you know? how do you trouble shoot?
Hope these help.

How to manage slow and fast moving goods in Demand Planning

Hi All,
Kindly let me know how to manage slow and fast moving goods in Demand Planning.
1. First how to detect slow and fast moving goods
2. which DP model to use
3. Any Best practice while dealing with slow and fast moving goods
Thanks
Arun

Arun,
There are two main concerns with forecasting slow moving goods. For fast moving, yes, trend, level and seasonality combined with a decent demand level gets you through.
So, either you don't have demand in the market for that product; if the product is not critical (like go/no go spare parts) I recommend just averaging out the demand over a period and going with that. Any errors incurred there won't have a significant business impact. On the other hand if it is critical, safety stock and/or contractual obligations come to play.
OR, if there is market demand but your market share is too low for whatever reason, then it gets tricky because you need a predictor variable(s) for which you have good knowledge off (such as CPI index, demand for related products, etc). The forecast is then done on the predictor variable(s) and the low market share applied to 'translate' the expected demand to the product in question. Unfortunately, the case of low demand/low market share I have no idea of how to implement it on SAP. Since forecasting is just the tip of the iceberg, it may pay to do it outside of SAP (say in Excel) and manually input it (unless the products are many and varied).
Hope this helps. Please let me know if this makes sense and/or applies to your question.
Rodrigo

What is demand planning and shop floor plannig, explain briefly?

I like to know and understand about demand planning and shop floor plaining? please explain briefly?
Thank you,
york

Hi Les,
<b>Demand Planning</b> is
Application component in the Advanced Planner and Optimizer (APO) that allows you to forecast market demand for your company's products and produce a demand plan.
APO Demand Planning has a data mart in which you store and maintain the information necessary for the demand planning process in your company. Using this information along with user-defined planning layouts and interactive planning books, you can integrate people from different departments into the forecasting process. The APO DP library of statistical forecasting and advanced macro techniques allows you to create forecasts based on demand history as well as any number of causal factors, and use a consensus-based approach to consolidate the results. Marketing intelligence and management adjustments can be added by using forecast overrides and promotions. The seamless integration with APO Supply Network Planning supports an efficient S&OP process.
regards
kp

Error Message When Opening Interactive Demand Planning

Hello Experts,
I have one user who is receiving the following error message when trying to open Interactive Demand Planning Workbook. Only one user is experiencing this issue. Has anyone run into this before?
GP: Graphics product not available in this system; see long text
Message no. APPLG225
Diagnosis
The required graphics product is not available on the current platform. It is either not permitted, or it does not work properly.
The application does not have a fallback strategy.
Procedure
Application/Specialists
Contact your developers to see if a fallback strategy can be implemented.
Development
Check the call method of the graphics proxy. If the graphics product is not mandatory (parameter FORCE_PROD), then the graphics proxy can select a different graphics product that is available on this platform.

Dear Adam,
The prerequisite for graphics in planning folders is the SAP Internet Graphics Server. The connection between the SAP Internet Graphics Server and the system in which you operate BPS must take place using an RFC destination of the type TCP/IP with the predefined name IGS_DEST_POFO.
Please make sure that your settings are correct and check the online help at:   http://help.sap.com/saphelp_sem320bw/helpdata/en/05/
242537cedf2056e10000009b38f936/frameset.htm
Planning Folder
> Editing a Planning Folder: Details
      >Planning Folder: Portfolio Graphic"
Please have a look at the following notes as well that helped to solve problems with the IGS. 454042 IGS: Installing and Configuring the IGS
676532 Dumps in transactions with splitter containers
I hope this helps.
Regards,
Tibor

Demand Planning: How to create a forecast in ODP

Our client is using Oracle Financials OM etc however it currently uses a separate tool for forecasting. We are planning to start forecasting in Oracle Demand Planning.
Following is the simplified calculation for forecasting, how can this be done in ODP:
Calculation is done for item type, 2 calculations are done for every month (X and Y changes every month):
JAN:
1. A= X% of Jan sales
2. B= Y% of last year sales
The forecast should pick greatest number among A and B (it should not pick A+B).
Is this possible in ODP, how to setup the forecast and its calculations.
Thanks in advance.

You could do this in ODP using the absolute value function and some formula measures.
I assume you are familiar with formula measures in ODP and hence I will focus only on the math behind the formula measures. I am ignoring the percentage aspect that can be easily achieved using formula measure capabilities.
The result set that you want is the following:
if X > Y return X else Y
Formula measure 1 = FM1 = X + Y
Formula measure 2 = FM2 = = |X - Y| (absolute value)
Formula measure 3 = (FM1 + FM2) / 2
How does this work?
|X - Y|
returns Y - X if Y > X
returns X - Y if X > Y
if X > Y then the result is
(X + Y + X - Y)/2 = X
if X < Y, then the result is
(X + Y + Y - X)/2 = Y
This will give you the results you want.
Note: the formula measures apply at all levels of the hierarchy and is not the aggregation from the lowest levels.
Please be careful and validate this solution against your total set of requirements.

Where and How Forcast data is stored in Demand planning keyfigures

Hi ALL,
We are using SCM 4.0 for configuring DP module.
Our requirement is like this...
1.we have majorly six users (Managers) who should have an access for relevant planning books.
2. our client have 'kits' which contains sub components
in it.(all are materials).
3.They sell materilas individually and through 'Kits'as
sub components. (One kit contains sevaral materials
as sub components with defferent quantities).
4.Forecast is needed on materials individually and also on kit level.
5. Dependent demand (sub components) should be added to
individual material forecast to get final forecast.
Can any body explain the best way to model this situation?.
assumptions
1. Can one planning area is sufficient to deal this situation. (I want to use DP BOM also to capture dependent demand).
2. how many forecast key figures are required.(for six plannimng books)
Any one come up with solution is highly appreciated.
Thanks in advance
Ramakrishna

Hi,
Here are my thoughts:
As per your description below (and only 2 seconds of design thoughts for me), I believe you need at least 3 Key figures (Stat forecast, dependent demand, Total Demand). Total Demand = Stat Forecast + dependent Demand (to be updated by planning book macro).
I think you need at least the 2 Characteristics: Kit (kit # whatever), Material (9AMATNR). You may also want to add Country, or whatever location characteristic if you need it.
In your planning books, you can add the characteristic for Kit and Material. In the shuffler, users may select the kit (w/c effectively selects the materials under it) to forecast on "Kit level". Forecast on material level will then depend on the disaggregation rules that you configure. If you need to forecast on material level, then users will select materials on the shuffler. "Kit level" forecast will then be changed based on aggregation rules.
Hope this helps.

Forecasting models and errors

Hi Expeing
I have following queries with regard to the forecasting Techniques:
1)How can we identify the periods in Seasonality?How to judge the seasonal periods to be taken for running the seasonal forecasting models?
2)How the errors are used in judging the forecast?As we have 6 errors what is the importance of the errors(MAD,MAPE,MSC,MPE,RMSC)?
What error should be taken as consideration while forecasting?
Why some planners only consider MAD and some planners only consider MAPE ,MSC while judging the forecast models?What is the difference between MAD,MAPE,MSC,MPE &RMSE
Please throw some light on the above questions.Your reply is highly awarded.
with regards
sai

Dear Sai,
No answer can be exhaustive .I have tried to explain as short as possible.
For Identification of periods of seasonality ,it is important to clean the historical data from abnormal high and low sales.Abnormal high sales can be caused by sporadic opportunities and low sales may happen due to natural calamities. These unnatural sales should be removed in consultation with business people to get clear picture.
Seasonal variation is measured in terms of an index, called seasonal index. It is an average that indicates the percentage of an actual observation relative to what it would be if no seasonal variation in a particular period is present
Measuring Forecast Errors
Method and Purpose
Mean squared error (MSE): Measures the dispersion of forecast errors; large errors get more weight than when using MAD. Therefore, it is sensitive to non-normal data contaminated by outliers, and such data are common.
Mean absolute deviation(MAD):Measures the dispersion of forecast errors.Measures the size of errors in units. Though it is a good measure for single product forecast, but if we aggregate MAD over multiple items, there is a possibility of high volume products dominating the results. MAD is a linear metric for error and gives same weight to all errors , large or small.
Mean absolute percent error (MAPE):Measures the dispersion of forecast errors relative to the level of demand.It measures the size of error in percentage terms. A MAPE of .19 suggests that on average the difference between the forecasted and actual values is 19%. MAPE is scale sensitive and therefore meaningless for low volume data or data with zero demand periods.
RMSE:The quadratic error provides estimates that are more linked to variance and standard deviation of demand distribution. RMSE is a quadratic metric for error and tends to overweight large errors.
Regards,
Samir Baruah

Customer Forecast Management vs. Collaborative Demand Planning

Hello,
Currently my client is trying to replace 40-50 raw excel format forecast which they receive from multiple customers with SAP APO.
They use a consolidated format and upload it into another 3rd party tool currently.
My question is which best suits the purpose in short term as they are very limited on resources. I would also like to know the difference between using Customer forecast management vs. Collaborative demand planning in this context.
Thank you all,
Sai.

You can use the GATP functionality known as Product Allocation for this scenario. This will basically mean that you need to maintain product allocations against each customer in your GATP planning book and every time you create a sales order in R/3, the quantity will be checked against the allocated quantity in APO GATP. If the quantity exceeds the allocated quantity for that given month, then sales order cannot be confirmed.
You will need to explore this funcionality in APO GATP and this should help your requirement.
Cheers,
Srinidhi

Forecasting Models in Demand Planning.

Hi experts,
want to know in details and also to practice various forecasting models in Demand Planning, from beginning.
please suggest.
Regards
Bhupendra

Hi Bhupendra,
There are various forecasting models to use in business like automatic model and manual model as a broad category.
In detailed, there are models like constant model, trend model, season models, trend seasonal etc.,
Forecasting models are very simple and mostly based on STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES. If you have sound knowledge in various statistical methodologies, it will be very easy to followup all the models.
Moreover, while selecting the best model for an organisation, one needs to study and identify the key performance indicators for improvement and accordingly the forecast model needs to be aligned.
The method to find this kind of model is the BEST FIT METHOD (it could be one or more or combo of it).
In demo systems or sandbox system, you can populate various data with various models and try to analyse the one which satisfies business requirements. You can also take the help of BUSINESS PLANNING ANALYSER to build the customised forecasting model which can be part of business side or from consulting side.
Regards
R. Senthil Mareeswaran.

Demand planning Forecast errors and KPI to store results of error

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