Error syncing Outlook calendars : "sync server failed to sync the phone"; bad Outlook entries?

Question

I just started having problems syncing my calendars from Outlook 2007/WinXP to my iPhone via iTunes, getting the "cannot sync" error. I tried following all the advice elsewhere on these boards -- deleting my backups and resetting sync history, using a different cable/USB port, etc., but nothing helped. I'm strongly averse to doing a backup/recovery unless I absolutely positively know it will fix it, and right now, I doubt that it will.
I looked in the sync log files, and found this:
[2828 @ Wed Jul 06 15:08:27 2011] [_ISDVLog AppleMobileSync.exe] While filtering - Some ids (<CFArray 0254F1B8 [00BC5078]>{type = immutable, count = 15, values = (
    0 : E8034F72-29A8-7448-8CDE-343B4F9B8420
    1 : 91D1F339-ADF7-064D-9BF4-1634B516832B
    14 : 37C931FA-1102-F44D-B670-4E118229A8B9
)}) to filter were not found in the truth! There must be a reference to a non-existent record
So I suspect the problem lies here, and that it's complaining that some calendar records are somehow corrupt or otherwise problematic for the sync engine. However, I'm at a loss to figure out which items these are, or how to even narrow it down to a specific calendar -- it doesn't matter if I uncheck all of the calendars but one, I still get it no matter what, making me think it could be in a calendar I am explicitly NOT trying to sync.
Or...given that the problem happens if I unselect all my individual calendars (the "Sync Calendars with..." remains checked), could the problem be corrupt records on the phone? I haven't tried removing the calendars entirely on the phone and replacing them, although that may be my next step, but if the sync continues to fail, I'll have NO calendar data (instead of just out-of-date data), which is far worse.
Am I on the right track here?

Answer 1

Well, the answer is that I was on the right track with the second suggestion. The problem seems to have been corrupt records on the phone itself. I checked the option to replace all calendar information on the next sync, then synced a second time, and everything restored fine. (Minus the calendar colors that I had arranged just so, but that's fixable with lots of re-syncing and patience.)