Estimated file size in Media Encoder too big by 8 GB, Why? Need to be accurate

I completed a 2 and a half hour project in Premiere Pro CS 5.5 at 1440 x 1080i
I went to encode it through Media Encoder. (File ---- Export ------ Media) the box opened up and I set my settings. I encoded it at (CBR)
I looked at the file size and it said it was estimated at 15GB, which is what I wanted it to be.
It took 4 hours to encode and when it was done I looked at the file size and it was 23 GB.
Why? It said it was going to be 15 GB
I imported it into Encore as an asset and put it on a timeline. Encore says the project is now 31 GB (I do have Animated Butons with Moviing Videos inside of them so that is adding to the size).
How can I get an accurate size so when it says it going to be 15 GB it is going to be 15 GB?
Premiere Pro CS 5.5
Media Encoder 5
Encore 5.5

I think the key word is estimated.

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