Forecasting Strategy feasibility.

Hi All,
I need to check feasibility of one particular scenario.
I have 100 Materials for which I need to Forecast. I need to calculate best Forecast strategy for all Material with calculation of Forecasting Error.
Correct me if I am wrong: We can get the Best Forecasting Strategy by adding all the Univariate Profile with different Forecasting Strategy in the Composite Profile Tab.
Now my requirement:
1. I have 100 SKUs. Each individual SKU has different historical data. Now I cant run Univariate Profile for each individual SKU separately and also run the Composite Profile to find out the best Forecast. I need to find is there a way to run the Forecasting Strategy for all SKUs separately something like mass run together?
To be very precises i need to run Forecast Strategy for all 100 SKUs for their individuals Historical Data simultaneously.
Thanks,
Best Regards,
Bhaskar

To comment on the statement: If you are looking at performance at Go-Live you might be better off with Auto 1. Auto 2 takes more time
some more ideas if you want to explore them
your final solution will depend on the weightage of the performance of the forecast run vs the accuracy of it
If you are focussing on the performance use Auto 1 during go live. It will definitely be faster.
If you are looking at accuracy go for Auto 2
You also dont have to use a one-size- fits-all solution for the million CVCs.
Also your forecasting level will make a difference. You might notice dont have to forecast at the most detailed level or for all the million CVCs all the time. Check if all the characteristic levels are pertinent to your forecasting.
You can also forecast at a aggregate level depending on the product characteristics. epending on the business you should look whether a top-down forecasting approach can be adopted vs a bottom-up approach that you are looking at. You can use KF disaggregation to let the forecast take its proportions
You need to be able to group your products at least into 2. You might also use the other characteristics to group these
examples of Group 1:
Critical Products were forecast accuracy matters
Products with Trend, Seasonality
Products which will have an immediate visible effect post go-live
High value products
Regions where not going out-of-stock might be important
use Auto 2 on Group 1
Group 2:
Rest of the products
Use Auto 1

Similar Messages

Can anyone let me know how does the system calculate forecast strategy?

Hi all,
I am new in Demand planning,, I can see a couple of Forecast strategy used in the production. I would like to know how does the system does the calculation for the forecasting strategies like
36     Median method
13     Moving average
94     Linear regression
etc.
Can anyone pls guide me how does the system do the calculation and how to validate those calculations!!
Thanks
Pooja

Hi Pooja,
The below link will contain the detailed list of all forecast strategies alongwith how
it will be calculated alongwith the formulas
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/EN/ac/216b6e337b11d398290000e8a49608/frameset.htm
Please confirm whether this helps you to resolve your query
Regards
R. Senthil Mareeswaran.

APO DP - use of forecast strategy 60 (copy history)

I am using APO DP V5.
I need to understand how forecast strategy 60 (copy history) works.
Suppose I have a three year forecast horizon.
Can I use this to copy from last year's history into <u>each</u> of these 3 years?
Thanks,
Bob Austin, Atos Origin

Hi Bob.
The answer to your question is no. 12 months of history will only generate 12 months of forecast.
I would suggest that if this was a requirement then a macro could be used to generate such a forecast.
Hope this helps.
Mark

Forecast strategy 98: No forecast

HI!
The users would like to assign a forecast profil wich use the strategy 98 (no forecast). But, in interactive demand planning, when i assign this profil to a selection (by clicking on the univariate forecast button) the assignement isn't saved even if i click on the save button. Moreover, the forecast isn't save.
Can i have some help please?
Thanks by advance,
LB

Ok, then this is not assignment but selection of a profile to carry out interactive forecasting. Not the same thing unfortunately.
You can assign forecast profiles to selections using trx /SAPAPO/MSDP_FCST2.
However, be careful here as selections in this context refer to planning area selections, which are not the same as selections created for a planning book.
Planning area selections can be seen/managed through /SAPAPO/MDSP_ADMIN, open a planning area and then menu Goto->Selection Management.
Selections can be created here, but it is generally best practice for selections to be generated and assigned to internally generated forecast profiles as part of background forecasting. By using a diagnosis group within a master forecast profile, errors outside of the threshold defined in the diagnosis group will switch to generating these new profiles and assignments if the pertinent radio buttons are selected in the Forecast activity definition.
If you create selections directly to manually assign separate forecast profiles, be very clear on the characteristic combinations you are creating them for as it is important to input exactly the same characteristic for selection in the planning book. (If this is not the case the assigned profiles will not be seen - a check for this is in inetarctive forecasting to use GoTo-> Selection display which shows the selection as would be used for assignment and clarify that it matches the characteristic levels defined in the planning area selection you created)
It might seem a bit confusing and it can be when you don't use the background method.
2 main areas in help are as follows:
<a href="http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/8f/9d6937089c2556e10000009b38f889/frameset.htm">http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/8f/9d6937089c2556e10000009b38f889/frameset.htm</a>
<a href="http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/8f/9d6937089c2556e10000009b38f889/frameset.htm">http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/8f/9d6937089c2556e10000009b38f889/frameset.htm</a>
Hope this helps.
Mark.

How to determine the values for Model Parameters in Forecasting

Hello Gurus,
On basis we will determine the values for the Model Parameter values (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Sigma).
Thanks,
Siva.

Dear Siva,
the values are dependent from the forecast stratey and forecast model.
The forecast strategy determines the method or the techniques that are used to create the forecast. You set the forecast strategy in the forecast profile.
There are some settings that you must make for certain forecast strategies. The table below shows you which settings these are. You make these settings either in the univariate forecast profile or under the Model and Parameters tabs of the Forecast view on the demand planning desktop.
Model initialization is the process by which the system determines the necessary model parameters for the chosen forecast model. These parameters are in following link:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/ac/216b74337b11d398290000e8a49608/frameset.htm
I hope this helps you further.
Regards,
Tibor

Reg Forecasting

Hi
I am new to DP.
please anybody clarify these doubts...
What is univariate forecast profile? and what is multi leaner regression?
What are the differences between UNIVARIATE & MULTILENIAR?
What is forecast accuracy?
How do you find out, which is fit to forecast?
please explain.
i am very much thankful to you
Regards
Anitha

Hi Anithaa,
Below link will give you entire information on forecasting models, forecasting accuracy technequues etc,:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/33/437a37b70cf273e10000009b38f8cf/frameset.htm
For MLR refer the following link:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/ac/216ba4337b11d398290000e8a49608/frameset.htm
Which is the best model to use:
You should try running forecasting using various model(seasonal, seasonal linear, linear, constant etc) and comapre
the forecast accuracy and find out which one is the best suitable.
Another way is to choose auto model which will select the best possible forecast strategy and give the result.
Regards,
Chetana

APO DP - validation of correct forecast profile

We are using APO DP V5.0.
In interactive DP, we forecast at the level of 'product at customer'. For the 'product at customer' characteristic we have navigation attributes, such as 'history type' (eg EPOS, despatch)
The 'history type' determines which key figure we use as history, and so we have forecast profiles which are relevant for the different history types.
If a user assigns a forecast profile in interactive DP to a 'product at customer', we want to get the system to check that the forecast profile is actually valid for the relevant 'history type'. We have named the profiles carefully so that, for example, the first x characters of the profile name reflect the history type; so we could have validation logic saying 'if history type = EPOS, check that forecast profile starts with 'EPOS'.
But how could this validation logic be triggered?
Any ideas?
Thanks,
Bob Austin, Atos Origin

Hi Bob,
Wow, what a brain bender!
I think this would require some fairly serious ABAP...
You can't get the value of an attribute interactively (via a macro function, for example using ACT_IOBJNM_VALUE()). You would need a Function Module that could manipulate the Planning Object Structure to grab the attribute of the characteristic in question, based on the current selection.
The name of the forecast profile also can't be done with a standard APO macro function. We had something similar where we wanted to get the name of the forecast strategy via a macro function, but we ended up needing to create a short Function Module in ABAP that could called as a User Exit Macro. The trick with the Function Module is that you will need is to tell the system to get the GUID of the current selection, then use that to find the name of the Forecast Profile (field PRPFL) from the /SAPAPO/DP_FCST2 table.
Once you have that, you could tell the Function Module to pass just the first four letters ('EPOS') back to the planning book user exit macro so that you could then compare that with the attribute value.
Probably you didn't need me to write this short functional spec, but it was a very interesting problem to consider. Hopefully somebody else will read this and tell us a much simpler way to do it.
Dan

Forecast Model in Demand planning and E book Sap trainingcourse

Dear Experts ,
I am Exploring differnt Forecast Model , like constant
model, trend model, seasonal model, trend and seasonal model, Croston method
with exponential smoothing, linear regression, and causal models with multiple
linear regression (MLR).
is there any SAP links or material or course availabe to learn more about Forecasting Techniques that we can use in Demand Planning in APO
if you have idea please help me to learn .. i am really starving for this techniques
Thanks in advance
Cheers & Thanks
Raj

Hi Raj
Below link will give you entire information on forecasting models, forecasting accuracy technequues etc,:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/33/437a37b70cf273e10000009b38f8cf/frameset.htm
For MLR refer the following link:
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_apo/helpdata/en/ac/216ba4337b11d398290000e8a49608/frameset.htm
Which is the best model to use:
You should try running forecasting using various model(seasonal, seasonal linear, linear, constant etc) and comapre
the forecast accuracy and find out which one is the best suitable.
Another way is to choose auto model which will select the best possible forecast strategy and give the result.
I hope thos will help you.
Please let us know if you require any more information.
Thanks
Amol

Automatic forecast model determination

Hi everyone, I would appreciate a lot if you can help with the following problem: in order to apply the automatic determination of the forecast model in the materials master, what other requirements are neccesary, besides that the forecast model 'J' is placed in the forecast view?, since I've been carrying out some tests of this type of automatic forecast, and apparently it only results to detect trend and constants models, but not seasonal, although, for this last type of model, also I have dealed with fields in the forecast view of material master, such as Historial Periods, Periods by Seadon, Forecast Periods, and Model Selection. When I have an historical one of consumptions with seasonal flow, if I do it with automatic forecast model, it does not detect no seasonal flow, reason why it considers a constant model. However, if I place manually that the model is seasonal, the forecast works in a correct form.
There is something that I'm avoiding in the configuration or in the updating of the materials master?
From already thank you very much.
Regards.
Luis Carbajal

Hi,
Automatic model selection procedure 1 is used in forecast strategies 50, 51, 52, 53, 54 and 55.
Automatic Model selection procedure 2 is used in forecast strategy 56.
Procedure 1 executes Seasonal and Trend tests and if neitehr of these are postive then constant model is checked. For Procedure 1 , is to recommended to be used without outlier control.
Procedure 2 executes using Constant, trend, seasonal and seasonal trend model. For procedure 2, we must remember that when you use the outlier correction, the results are not comparable with the results of the individual processes, since another procedure can be selected for the outlier correction than for the final forecast.
Linear regression and seasonal linear regression are added to automatic model selection 2 . In addition , a trend test, a seasonal test and a test of white nosie are introduced in model selection 2.
*Further the way series of tests are carried out is different for the two procedures and this is explained in SAP Help .
*http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/19/98ad1765354d7ba54b1eb164c377e0/frameset.htm
Hope this gives you insight.
Regards
Datta

Aggregation of the Forecast to product level

Hi,
In the Demand Planning We have a requirement that say there are 2 products A and B. We will execute the forecast at the product level and we get forecast say 200 ifor product A and 300 ifor product B for next month.
Now i will run the forecast at the product group level(taking these 2 products in one selection) and i will get the forecast say 500. Now the requirement is that this forecast is to be disaggregated to 200 for product A and 300 for product B . Client do not like to run the forecast at the product level.If we run at the product group level,this should be disaggregated to the product level in such a way it shhould equal to the forecast when we run at product level. Forecast profile is same for product and product group level. All the other parameters such as historical period,forecast periods etc are same at the product and product group level.
Please advise what are the settings required.
Thanks
Siva

Hi Siva,
If I understand correctly what you need is either you forecast at aggregate level or details level, forecast at details level should be same in both case.
This is more of chicken or egg come first situation. If you really like the forecast at the aggregate level to disaggregate same as forecast at detail level than I would suggest to forecast at lower level.
Reason being, Even though you use same forecast profile you will get different forecast numbers at lower level and aggregate level due to different sale pattern (Sales history) at detail level in case you are using complex forecast strategy.
You may take following approach to get some what near by results if not exact.
1. calculate "detail proportion factor" for all periods you want to forecast.
2. Forecast at product group level and dis aggregate based on this detailed proportion factors.
Hope this helps.
Regards,
Harshil Desai

Statistical Forecast Models Using Forecast Assignment Table

Hello all. I need some help.
I am trying to setup a background process to execute Statistical Forecasts in background using the models stored in the table /SAPAPO/DP_FCST2
Can anybody offer advice with regards the best approach.
Is there a specific Forecast Strategy or User Exit that should be used?
Thanks

Hello Christopher
Control Parameter in the activity needs to be setup correctly.
Additionally please refer this old thread
Forecasting interactively and background in DP
Just want to add some additional information on this topic -
In Planning Book, Goto Settings => Forecast Profile => Assignments: There are three options available -
1) Save assignment of selection for forecast profile - This allows users to save changes to original forecast profile
2) Save assignment with unique forecast profile - (this allows for the planner to fine tune a model but then save it to a unique GUID instead of over-writing the original profile itself. Typically, DP Planner are expected to use this option.
3) Do not save assignment and forecast profiles - This also allows users to over-write the original forecast profile settings without saving the assignment
Additionally if this /SAPAPO/FCST_GUIDS parameter is set to “X” then it will result into system saving any forecast profile changes as a unique forecast profile(GUID based).
Also when generating the forecasting (using option#2 above )interactively, it is important to use same planning levels(selection id) as defined in aggregation levels in background job.
Hope this will help.
Thank you
Satish Waghmare

Forecast Automodel

Hi,
I use the forecast strategy 56, and the table in the transaction /SAPAPO/MSDP_FCST2 is fulfill with the automatic selection according with the test
I think i miss a step because If I want to see this generated profile in the /SAPAPO/MC96B I only see the Master Fcts Profile and Univariate Fcst Profile that I manually create
I appreciate any suggestion or comment
Best regards

I did not understand whether you were able to see generated profile in /SAPAPO/MC96B. As I said in earlier note, you can go to table /SAPAPO/DP_FCST2, pickup the forecast profile and paste it in Master Forecast field in /SAPAPO/MC96B and press enter.
Note that once the forecast profile is generated a unique forecast strategy is selected eg. Croston's model. Then this model is used in background when you run the forecast. There is no question of running automodel again in background. The only way to run automodel again is to reset the forecast strategy in generated profile to strategy 56 or the one corresponding to auto model 1. You would need to save the profile using either the save button that appears on univariate screeen or directly in /SAPAPO/MC96B
Let me know if this helps.

APO SPP: No Historical Forecast visible in transaction /SAPAPO/SPPFCSTTRACK

Hello
I am trying to view historical forecast data via transaction /SAPAPO/SPPFCSTTRACK in APO SPP. However i get the message "No hist. fcst time series can be determined".
The forecast strategy is correctly assigned to the product & the standard deviation period is populated as 12 months.
The forecast periodicity is months.
When I execute the forecast using planning service manager or interactively, it correctly calculates the forecast in future as well as ex post forecast in the past. I believe the historical forecast is calculated immediately with the forecast run.
Can anyone help to identify if some setting is missed or any specific planning service is required to be executed to enable historical forecasting. Thanks in advance

Hi,
If the transaction /SAPAPO/SPPFCSTTRACK does not provide any information regarding Historical Forecast data (while you have already performed the forecast for the certain location product) then you probably haven't created a new forecast with a different model. For example, if you created the first forecast with Moving Average then you need to change the Forecast Strategy to an another one (or run Automatic Model Selection which should also select a different strategy). In case when the new Forecast Strategy differs to the previous one, then the appropriate trigger (SPP_FCSTMODEL_CHANGE) will be created for recalculation of the Historical Forecast. Of course, if the trigger is created, you also need to run a PSM service for the recalculation which should be configured for the location product you need to process.
(You can find more information regarding this [here|http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm50/helpdata/en/43/300e47bd9e2227e10000000a422035/frameset.htm].)
Best Regards,
Zsolt
Edited by: Zsolt Csoka on Jul 14, 2011 11:06 AM

Function that zero out negative forecast in APO DP (SCM 4.0)

Hi,
I tried to look for a thread about the above function but I have no luck. Would you kindly share a light if you have come accross negative number being generated automatically? (no macro is set up for negating forecast)
This is the note that I would found from SAP help, but there is no actual direction to get it.
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_nw04/helpdata/en/cf/d5e13ffb118f15e10000000a155106/frameset.htm
Thanks
Anita

it depends on the forecast strategy used....negative forecasts are automatically made zero by most strategies
some forecast strategy will generate negative forecasts ( am not sure which of them do).. but in that case you can use a macro to make it zero
I did not understand if you wanted Negative forecast or you want to zero out the negative ones
pl check link... http://help.sap.com/saphelp_nw04/helpdata/en/a4/42e03fc2269615e10000000a155106/content.htm
SCM 5.0 has Planning area parameters that will enable you to not allow non-sero numbers in KF

Stat forecast got generated without any order demand history

Hello ,
I have a issue came in , where we are seing a Stat forecast got generated without any order demand history. Is there any forecast strategy avaialable which can cause it.
Any hint is appreciated.
Regards
Deven

Hi Deven,
may be due to some redundant data this issue is coming.
Just write a simple macro and Give ROW_INPUT (0) to your history keyfigure .This will zero out the data for your "History" keyfigure.
Again try to generate stat fcst see what is coming.
Hope this will resolve your query.Same is the case happen with me i tried the same thing which i mentioned here.
Regards,
Nitish Panchal

Forecasting Strategy feasibility.

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