Has anyone calculated how long it'll take 4K to become the norm?

Just wondering something, When did 1080p become the norm and how long did ittake to get there? I wanna try and estimate how long it'll take for 4K broadcat/display will be on tv's. and for sale at reasonable prices etc.

Jordan Canada wrote:... When did 1080p become the norm and how long did ittake to get there?..
first 1000-lines TV was broadcasted by the BBC in 1940 ,,,
in the mid-80ies, socalled D2-MAC was established as a norm, and was used '92 for broadcasting the Olympics from Barcelona.
in the US, '96 HD-tv was broadcasted on a regular base... Japan launched HD-tv around 2000...
There are few hurdles to go: standards, bandwidth and content.
Standards - are just a pita ... licences, patents, 'political' interests. 4k is incredible amount of data, so compression is of paramount importance - but which one? h265? VP8? ...
Bandwidth - actual satelite transmissions are for economic reasons often 'crunched to death': by numbers a 1080 picture, but so highly compressed it looks more like VHS
Speaking of VHS: the 'tape wars' then (VHS vs. the 'better' betamax), was finally decided by the p***-industry...
which leads to 'content': the fail of home-3D is mainly based upon the lack of content. each 'standard'=company offers a few titles - done.
To produce now in 4k is probably the future-proof decision; but as long as the consumer has no real 4k-'experience', we will stay with 1080p for quiet a while.
My personal foreseeing is:
4k-screens are used to display multiple pictures simultanously - just watch how the younger generations consume media: watching a YT-video, searching for the next, 'texting' WhatsApp meanwhile, receiving pics by FB, listening to Spotify all the time..
.. and maybe, some content gets delivered in native 4k ..

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~snip~
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Has anyone calculated how long it'll take 4K to become the norm?

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