How many downloads are you hoping/expecting for your app?

I've seen a thread regarding develoers wanting to find out how many downloads their apps have had.
I'm in the early stages of developing my own app but wondered what expectations other developers have for their own apps?
in terms of a percentage of all iPhone users, what percentage would you be hoping to download your app?
I can't remember the stats for how many iPhone users there are - lets say 5million (if someone knows more accurate figure then please update).
Is it safe to assume a minimum percentage of 0.001% on average?
This is very low I think but even so would yeild 5000 downloads.
I just wondered how the rest of you are working out your expectations?
Cheers
Wayne

I think any app in the top 100 has gotten thousands of downloads at this point. However, not every app in the store is going to get that many; it depends greatly on your audience size, and your audience size is not all iphone users.
The audience for a game is all users that like *that type* of game - players of crosswords and sudoku will not necessarily buy a shoot-em-up game, and vice versa. An application that shows movie listings has a broad audience, but a birdwatching or insect identification app has a narrow audience. That's why niche apps will have higher prices - the audience is smaller, so each customer will have to pay more.
So - if you find a broad audience, or a niche audience that is willing to pay, you will get thousands of downloads every month. If you create an app with little or no audience, or create a clone in an area with too much competition, you'll still get a few downloads, but not enough to quit your day job.
I'm counting downloads on linktracker.com, and multiplying by 100. I consider that a lowball estimate of my total downloads, but it's far exceeded my expectations. Apparently even a pet rock will make enough money to pay the rent.

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