How to estimate the size of Encore DVD finish product?

Hello again!
I have a large holiday project that will spread over several DVD. But I would at least arrange things is a logical way on a mix of single and dual layer disks.
I have put together two time lines that by my calculation were over the DVD Capacity but it seems that I had plenty of room to fit them in (hoops used a double layer for 5.6 gig!) just the same I'd like to know if I can rely on what I see .
I thought may be the encoded file is smaller than it's AVI source but no it the same (since a found out that you can encode in the background whilst working on the rest of your project.)
So are those files, once in the DVD, exactly the same size are they show in the project window? and do I need to account for the other extra things done in Encore ie Menu, menu animation, chapter etc.
What would be the right way to go about it.
I had two files adding to 8.47GB that should really go together but I feared I was too close to the D/L full capacity and started to search for answers
Thank you
Michel

I have to say my question has been answered even if I have problem to understand the answer! But thanx Mylleneum, my search got me to Ken Stone (final cut pro web site) who offers bit budgeting calculator on Excel ( and Mac too). All I need to do now is get my brain around it!

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