Purchase applecare vs buy new iphone 3GS

Hi Folks,
My iphone 3G is about a year old and I am now presented with the option of buying applecare for $69. I checked my upgrade options and I can buy a new iphone 3G S for $199. So it seems to me that if something major or costly happens to my current iphone (lost, stolen, damaged, expensive repair...) I can just exercise the upgrade option. And if so, then applecare as insurance is costing $69 to protect an item that's replace for $199 -- not a very good insurance purchase. Of course, I would have to start a new two year contract, but that would not be a problem.
Anything wrong with this logic?
thanks,

gmansc wrote:
Yes, definitely a subsidized price. The cost should be something more like $399 or $499 (can't recall exactly), and then the applecare might be a good policy.
If you need an iPhone as a back up then you would be keeping the old one, if not then perhaps eBay? You would probably get more than the $200 upgrade.
So the added plus with release of the 3GS and Apple/ATT upgrade policy is that one need not worry about insuring with applecare those iphones that are upgraded for a reasonable price.
....and you'd have a brand new warranty on the new unit.
One hitch is if one had to turn in the old iphone 3G, or its sim card, to upgrade. But I don't think this is the case. Anybody know for sure?
Not in England, so some of what I'm saying may be invalid.

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