Question about Statistical Forecast

Hi,
We are trying to configure Statistical Forecast and the challenge is the planning level:
Our input KF is called Sales History and has a base planning level as:
PE/PRD/SOG/SOF/SGP/DC/ST   (Period/Product/S.Org/S.Off/S.Gp/Dist.Channel/Sold-To level)
however we want our forecast to be run at a more aggregate level as:
PE/PRD/SOG/SOF    (Period/Product/S.Org/S.Off),
i.e. without 3 levels SGP/DC/ST (S.Gp/Dist.Channel/Sold-To level)
My questions are:
1)  How can we forecast at an aggregate level without using too many helper KFs?
2)  Given that input KF and output KF for statistical forecast have to be at the same the aggregated planning level, how can we disaggregate forecast result back to the detail level?
Thank you.
Yee Ann

Hi Ram,
thank you for your fast reply. I might not have expressed myself clearly enough. Our situation is as follows:
We have an input key figure (ACTUALSQTY) at level PERPRODCUST and an output KF (STATISTICALFCSTQTY) at the same level. The statistical forecast itself however should be calculated at the higher level PERPRODCHAN (CHAN=distribution channel of the customer), and the results should be stored at STATISTICALFCSTQTY@PERPRODCUST, on the lower level. We need this STATISTICALFCSTQTY@PERPRODCUST as input for the manual sales forecast; the sales forecast KF has the base planning level PERPRODCUST, therefore I need to have the input at this level as well.
As far as I know, it is possible in APO DP to explicitly name a level for the statistical forecast itself, even when the level of the input/output key figures is lower.
I was hoping that there is a similar functionality in S&OP on HANA, i.e. I define a forecasting profile with input and output KF at PERPRODCUST and insert the forecast level PERPRODCHAN either in the forecasting profile or in the Excel AddIn when running a forecast.
As I assume from your answer above, I was thinking too simple.
If I define ACTUALSQTY@PERPRODCHAN and STATISTICALFCSTQTY@PERPRODCHAN I can do the forecast at this aggregated level, that is fine. However, I need another KF like DISAGG_STATISTICALFCST@PERPRODCUST as input for SALESFCSTQTY@PERPRODCUST, i.e. for the manual sales forecast on level PERPRODCUST. I think that is actually the same situation that Yee Yuen described in
"2)  Given that input KF and output KF for statistical forecast have to be at the same the aggregated planning level, how can we disaggregate forecast result back to the detail level?"
And I didn't get your idea of how to derive this DISAGG_STATISTICALFCST@PERPRODCUST from STATISTICALFCSTQTY@PERPRODCHAN.
It would be great if you could help me again!
Cheers, Jonathan

Similar Messages

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    Hi Bert,
    thank you for your fast answer. I checked the forum again and found this post:
    Question about Statistical Forecast
    However, I don't really get how the disaggregation is meant to work; the suggestion seems to be to calculate a forecast on an aggregated level, i.e. with input and output key figure with an aggregated base planning level, and then disaggregate it "somehow".
    Do you have any idea how this disaggregation might work and what other steps I have to consider?
    It seems as if I'd have to define a whole bunch of new key figures and have more than one output key figure but no input key figure for the statistical forecast, which doesn't make sense in my eyes.
    Actually I was looking for a solution where I can define my forecasting profile with both input and output key figure on the lower planning level and then insert the level I want the forecast to be done at either in the profile as well, or even more flexible when running or scheduling a forecast. Defining more key figures any time I need another forecasting level does not appear very comfortable. Is it meant to be like that or is there another way to reach the goal mentioned above?
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    Edit: The mentioned thread contains some valuable information on how to disaggregate key figures. However, the really tricky decision is how to define the disaggregation ratio.

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    Median Method - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library
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  • Statistical forecasting....Input and Output at different levels? & MAD and MAPE calculations

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  • Statistical forecast question

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  • Statistical Forecast cannot be deleted

    Hello everybody,
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    But the main issue I am having is that statistical forecast cannot be deleted. Normally this should be done via transaction /SAPAPO/MSDP_FCST1 - Lifecycle Planning .
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    In horizontal layouts (http://www.leftlane.pl/sty14/dig-t-r-3-cylindrowy-silnik-nissana-o-wadze-40-kg-i-mocy-400- km.html) holding of a filling object does not work. Everything is always held to upper edge of a screen regardless the settings. Possibility of holding the picture to the bottom edge or center would make my work much easier.
    According to UE regulations we have to inform about the cookies. I do not know how to do it in Muse. I mean, when the message shows up one time and is accepted, there would be no need to show it again and again during another visit on the website. Is there any way to do it? Is there any widget for it maybe?
    The YouTube widget sometimes changes size just like that. It is so when the miniature of the movie does not load, and the widget is set to stroke (in our case 4 pixels, rounded to 1 pixel). As I remember ( in case of a load error) it extends for 8 pixels wide.
    Last but not least - we use the cheapest hosting plan in Business Catalyst. The monthly bandwidth is enough, although we have a lot of pictures and we worried about it at first. Yet we are running out of the disk storage very quickly. We have used more than a half of a 1 GB after a month. We do not want to change BC for a different one, because we like the way it is connected with Muse. But we do not want to buy the most expensive package - but only this one has more disk space. We do not need any other of these functions and it would devastate our budget. Do we have any other option?
    I’m using Adobe Muse 7.2 on OS X 10.9.1.
    and I'm sending Muse file to <[email protected]>

    Unfortunatley, there is no way to get a code view in Muse. I know quite a few people requested it in the previous forum, but not really sure where that ended up. Also, you may not want to bring the html into DW unless you only have 1 or 2 small changes 2 make. Two reasons. First, it isnt backwards compatible, so if you are planning on updating that site in Muse, you will need to make those changes in DW everytime you update. Second, by all accounts the HTML that Muse puts out is not pretty or easy to work with. Unlike you, I am code averse, but there was a lenghty discussion on the previous forum on this topic. I know they were striving to make it better with every release, just not sure where it is at this point.
    Dont think I am reading that second question right, but there was a ton of info on that old site. You may want to take a look there, people posted a ton of great unique solutions, so it worth a look.
    Here is the link to the old forums- http://support.muse.adobe.com/muse

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