Reg doing forecast planning for first time

Question

Dear all,
I need to run forecast based planning for the first time, I only have past consumption values and I want to use constant model
How to run forecast moreover my alpha value is 0.1 and consumption values for past 10 months are 100,120,100,140,160,120,100,200,120,140,  what would be my forcast value If I run for constant model and how system calculates that value
regards
venkat

Answer 1

Dear ,
Please follwo the below steps for running forecast for Constant Model :
In MM02  you should maintain the following paramters :
1.MRP1-MRP4 view : MRP Type -VV, Planned delivery Time , Lot Size-EX  , Servicelevel Percentage -80-90% , Plannnig Startegey -10/20  as applicable , Procurement Type -F/E/X as apalicable , Period Indicator-M etc .
2.In forcasting view , Please maintain the following :
1.Forecast Model -D (Constant Model)  2.Period Indicator-M (flolows from MRP views) , Histry Period-10 ,Forecast Period -2/3 (How many months u want the system to forecast ) ,Period per sesson -10
In Control Data : Initialisation -X , Model Selection -A , Traking Limit -4 , Reset Automatically -Marked  ,Optimisation Level -F
Now , if you enter  the  smoothing factor : Alpha , beta , Gama and Delta each 0.30  , hit enter , it will re-set Appha 0.1-0.05 and Delta  0.30  because this two is applicable for Cosntant Model
Finally save this  and execute Forecasting through single material in MM02-Forecasting View -Exectute Forecast Option  or Collectively total forcast thropugh MP38 .Result will be Foercast Qty , basic Values , MAD , Safet stock .
Look around your detail formula which have used in Forecasting calcualtion based on the model selection in the below link :
forecasting models
http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/411outbd.htm
http://help.sap.com/printdocu/core/Print46c/en/data/pdf/LOLISPLN/LOLISPLN.pdf
http://help.sap.com/saphelp_nw04/helpdata/EN/6c/8f163f6b5baa09e10000000a114084/frameset.htm
Fisrth you try in sand box with a single material  and adjut accrodingly .
All the best
Regards
JH