Risk Quantification -

Question

Good morning,
I'm starting to work with Primavera Risk Analysis and i would like to sort a doubt in regards the Quantification and calculations the system did on an exercise i launched some days ago. (Real information)
I built up the Risk Register and assigned the Qualitative and Quantitative information as per Risk Matrix (5x5) in which:
for e.g for the first risk i have asigned on premitigated scenario:
Qualitative evaluation: Probability 30% (L) and VH for the Schedule Impact (>5 days) - Based on matrix
Impacted 21 Tasks distributing the impact by series (Load all the impact within the activities) - it means
Triangular Distribution:
(All tasks the same)
Minimum = 1
Most Likely = 1
Maximum = 1
My doubt is when i'm exporting the tabular layout and see the Quantification as follow:
(All tasks the same)
Minimum Duration = 4
Most Likely Duration = 5
Maximum Duration = 7
With VH Total Quantitative value of 105
I've been looking on the tool but i have not found any clue about the calculations or the variable the program takes to calculates these Durations.
Can any please help me to interpretate these situation and the way Primavera Risk Analysis based on the Qualitative and Quantitative infromation given through Risk Register calculates these 3 Durations?
Thanks i will really appreciate the feedback.

Answer 1

Hi,
In order to use your Exposure Risk Ratings, You can use the below steps:
1. After you create a Exposure Risk Category, You should specify it in Risk Matrix
2. Go to Risk Matrix and provide your "ZR1" Category in each of the Risk ratings for Severity of Risk
3. Similarly specify "ZR1" Risk category in each of the Risk ratings for Probability of the Risk
4. Now, for each of the Risk rating, maintain the Risk Matrix - Here you specify what should be the Final Rating when the Severity and Probability is given.
5. Now you will be able to use the Exposure Risk Ratings of your own in the Risk Assessment.
Hope it Helps,
Raghu