Should I buy the top-of-the-line 15" MBP or the Baseline 15" model (isa)

Now, I'm looking to buy a new 15" MBP when Mac OS X Lion comes out (isa). But my problem is should i buy the top-of-the-line model or the Baseline Model (isa).
So, I'm also waiting for the MBP with the new design maybe 2013 model (isa) so let's say the MBP is going to stay with me for 1 and a half years or two years(isa). I also have to tell you that I'm NOT THAT MUCH OF A GAMER, so tell me guys, with all the info that I've given you. which one do you recommend. O, btw, this is my FIRST Mac (isa).Plus, I'm also planning to upgrade the screen resolution to 1680 by 1050 resolution and the HDD to [email protected] (isa)

It really depends on how your going to use it. For general usage, the baseline 15" model will be fine. The major difference between the baseline and top of the line model is the graphics card. Since you don't do much gaming, the improved graphics the top of the line model offers won't really effect you and the graphics card included in the baseline model is plenty fast any way. The faster processor clock speed offered by the top of the line model will offer a negligible performance improvement in day to day use too, only really benefiting you in more advanced tasks like video editing. 
Finally, since you only plan to keep the MBP for 1 & 1/2 years, there's really not much point in spending large amounts of money on upgrades when you plan to replace the system soon.
Overall, in your case, there isn't much point in getting the top of the line model since you don't need the extra graphics performance unless your doing high end video editing, photo editing or gaming (which you say your not). Stick with the baseline model.

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