Time Machine doesn't add up

I've been running Time Machine on a 250gb external drive since 2008. I don't back up my entire Macbook Pro hard drive, just a few particular folders of important projects. Yesterday this hard drive failed (no problem, nothing lost...). So I reformatted it, made it a Time Machine disk, and set it to the same folders I previously had. The total contents of these folders is about 100gb.
I tell it to "Back Up Now" and it fails, telling me that it needs 350gb to do this backup and that I need to remove items. That's odd. So I remove one folder with 47gb, which brings the total to about 53gb. Back Up Now. This time it fails again, telling me that I need 430gb to complete this backup, and again, I need to remove items.
So first, the math doesn't add up. These were the same folders that it's been backing up for three years. Second, by removing half of the material I want backed up, it made the estimated backup BIGGER. I can't seem to get around this.

Wait wait wait, I think I see he problem. The list of folders on Time Machine is a list of things to EXCLUDE. Which is bizarre. It's been three years since I set it up and didn't realize that it assumes you want everything backed up unless told otherwise. Seems like the default should be to add what you want backed up, not choose things to not backup? Anyways. My error. Now I'm just waiting for it to tell me if I have enough room after jumping through the "back up this by not backing up that" hoops.

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