Time Machine running out of space but doesn't delete old backups

First some context:
I am running Parallels Desktop on a 2011 iMac. The VM is on a partition that is excluded from Time Machine.
I have a second partition where I copy the VM every night using CCC. (This avoids TM backing up a large VM every hour).
TM says initial backup is 220 GB. I have a 1TB USB drive attached. So normally, this works fine.
This morning 100GB were copied to my Parallels Desktop partition. So TM should copy something in excess of 100GB during backup.
Currently, only 15GB are free on my backup volume. But TM doesn't try to delete old backups. It doesn't seem to recognize the size of the backup. Instead when it starts, it predicts about 1GB to backup. Then during backup the amount grows (note that no new data is changed during backup!) and it finally hits the wall at 15GB because the disk is full.
Any idea why TM doesn't figure out the real backup size?
Here's the log from TM Buddy:
10.12.12 13:25:13,472 com.apple.backupd[27667]: Backing up to: /Volumes/Time Machine-Backups/Backups.backupdb
10.12.12 13:38:34,588 KernelEventAgent[48]: tid 00000000 type 'hfs', mounted on '/Volumes/Time Machine-Backups', from '/dev/disk1s2', low disk
10.12.12 13:38:34,000 kernel[0]: HFS: Low Disk: Vol: Time Machine-Backups freeblks: 38389, warninglimit: 38400
10.12.12 13:38:45,000 kernel[0]: HFS: Vol: Time Machine-Backups Very Low Disk: freeblks: 25589, dangerlimit: 25600
10.12.12 13:38:45,066 KernelEventAgent[48]: tid 00000000 type 'hfs', mounted on '/Volumes/Time Machine-Backups', from '/dev/disk1s2', low disk, very low disk
10.12.12 13:38:45,088 mds[42]: (Warning) Volume: Indexing reset and suspended on backup volume "/Volumes/Time Machine-Backups" because it is low on disk space.
10.12.12 13:39:47,794 KernelEventAgent[48]: tid 00000000 type 'hfs', mounted on '/Volumes/Time Machine-Backups', from '/dev/disk1s2', low disk
10.12.12 13:39:53,885 com.apple.backupd[27667]: Error: (-34) SrcErr:NO Copying /Volumes/WBackup/Parallels/Smart iMac Windows 7.pvm/Smart iMac Windows 7-0.hdd/Smart iMac Windows 7-0.hdd.0.{a09d01ec-5596-4f65-b4cd-86aeff90082f}.hds to /Volumes/Time Machine-Backups/Backups.backupdb/Smart iMac/2012-12-10-072536.inProgress/3380F092-9336-408F-90EB-387FDE60A79D/WBackup/ Parallels/Smart iMac Windows 7.pvm/Smart iMac Windows 7-0.hdd

I would highly recommend the following resource to help you with this problem:
         http://pondini.org/TM/Troubleshooting.html
Hope this helps

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    I am not running out of space, but I do have the same problem.  Every so often TM does a backup which is about 60 GB bigger than expected.   The  extra is always a new backup of /System /Applications /usr etc. - that is the 'system files'.
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    Like you, I have done a disk verify and it finds no errors.
    I think this must be a bug.  I have had this on four occassions since upgrading to Mountain Lion.  And it is doing a large one right now - I have caught it in the act!

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