Time Machine says my initial backup is way larger than it actually is.

I am doing an initial backup to Time Machine. I have 810.5 GB worth of data (according to the "options" tab of Time Machine System Prefs). However, when I go to do my first backup, I get a message saying that I have 972.8 GB of data which is too much to fit on my 1TB Time Capsule.
Any ideas re: why Time Machine is calculating 162.3 GB more than I actually have?

Gregory McBride wrote:
I am doing an initial backup to Time Machine. I have 810.5 GB worth of data (according to the "options" tab of Time Machine System Prefs). However, when I go to do my first backup, I get a message saying that I have 972.8 GB of data which is too much to fit on my 1TB Time Capsule.
Any ideas re: why Time Machine is calculating 162.3 GB more than I actually have?
If you download the +Time Machine Buddy+ widget via this link, it will show the messages from your backup attempt.
The critical message will be, roughly, "No pre-backup thinning needed: 972.8 GB requested (including padding), xxx GB available."
The "padding" is about 20% that TM adds to the actual amount of data, for workspace it will need on the backup volume.
A general "rule of thumb" is, TM needs 2 to 3 times as much space as the data it's backing-up.
But this actually varies greatly, depending on how you use your Mac. If you frequently add/update lots of large files, then even 3 times may not be enough. If you're a light user, 1.5 times might do.
But yours is just barely larger.
You have three options:
1. Get a bigger drive for TM.
2. Exclude a lot (a whole lot!) of data from TM (via TM Preferences > Options).
3. Use a different backup app, such as a "bootable clone," that doesn't keep copies of items that have been changed or deleted.

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