Time Machine unable to free enough space

Just returned from a longer trip, taking a lot of pictures, and now my Time Machine backup is failing. Here's what I can read from the logs:
1) For about 45 minutes, it determines what needs backing up
2) Then, it determines it doesn't have enough space
3) It gets rid of a few backups (between 1 and 10), but still doesn't have the space
4) It gives up
This pattern has been repeating for days, once an hour, and no backup has happened.
How can I recover from this?
Here is the log of a run:
Jan 14 02:47:06 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Starting standard backup
Jan 14 02:47:06 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Backup destination alias resolved to path: /Volumes/Weird Ed's Time Capsule
Jan 14 02:47:08 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Disk image /Volumes/Weird Ed's Time Capsule/WeirdEdMBP_001f5be6fa3e.sparsebundle mounted at: /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP
Jan 14 02:47:09 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Backing up to: /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP/Backups.backupdb
Jan 14 02:47:21 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Event store UUIDs don't match for volume: Macintosh HD
Jan 14 02:47:21 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Node requires deep traversal:/ reason:kFSEDBEventFlagMustScanSubDirs|kFSEDBEventFlagReasonEventDBUntrustable|
Jan 14 03:31:54 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Backup destination alias resolved to path: /Volumes/Weird Ed's Time Capsule
Jan 14 03:31:55 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Disk image /Volumes/Weird Ed's Time Capsule/WeirdEdMBP_001f5be6fa3e.sparsebundle mounted at: /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP
Jan 14 03:35:50 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Starting pre-backup thinning: 52.66 GB requested (including padding), 16.57 GB available
Jan 14 03:38:15 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Deleted backup /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP/Backups.backupdb/WeirdEdMBP/2008-12-10-003030: 16.57 GB now available
Jan 14 03:39:01 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Deleted backup /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP/Backups.backupdb/WeirdEdMBP/2008-12-18-235052: 16.57 GB now available
Jan 14 03:39:33 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Deleted backup /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP/Backups.backupdb/WeirdEdMBP/2008-12-18-225055: 16.57 GB now available
Jan 14 03:40:04 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Deleted backup /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP/Backups.backupdb/WeirdEdMBP/2008-12-18-215132: 16.57 GB now available
Jan 14 03:40:48 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Deleted backup /Volumes/Backup of WeirdEdMBP/Backups.backupdb/WeirdEdMBP/2008-12-18-204435: 16.57 GB now available
Jan 14 03:40:48 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Stopping backup.
Jan 14 03:40:54 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Backup canceled.
Jan 14 03:41:01 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Ejected Time Machine disk image.
Jan 14 03:41:01 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Compacting backup disk image to recover free space
Jan 14 03:42:12 weirdedmbp /System/Library/CoreServices/backupd[1931]: Completed backup disk image compaction

Right, I understand that there isn't enough space, but I also was under the impression that Time Machine is supposed to manage the space. The backups are the only thing on the time capsule. I'm backing up a single MacBook Pro with a 200GB drive to the 500GB time capsule, so Time Machine should be able to make space by simply deleting old backups. An so far, that has worked.
I get the impression that there's a limit to how many old backups are being removed, and it feels like a time limit. Meaning: If TM deletes backups for more than 10 minutes or so, and there's still not enough space, it gives up.
Trouble is that each turn of deleting some old backups is preceeded by that ~45 minute period of "determining what to back up".
That's what I'm doing now: Deleting old backups, and once that completes I'll compact the sparse bundle. Hopefully, that'll do the trick. So if I let this go on for days/weeks/months, it probably will eventually free up enough space again.
Still, this would seem like a rather common case, this should really work. So far, not very impressed with Time Machine.

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