Upgrade 4S to 5 or buy New?

Will I be able to upgrade my 4S to 5 when IOS 6 is released this fall or should I wait for the new iPhone 5 when released?

Hmmm...you're managing to be quite confusing in the way you're asking the question!
Forget for a moment that there is going to be any new phone ("iPhone 5" or whatever).  If you're asking whether you can upgrade the OS on a 4S from iOS5 to iOS6 (when that comes out in the Autumn), then the answer is yes.  As things stand the 4S is the latest version of the phone that there is, so it has to be upgradeable.
If you buy a 4S on a contract now, and a new phone comes out in a few months time, then it is unlikely that you could upgrade to a new phone without buying out the rest of your contract, but that would all depend on the carrier.  If you buy a 4S outright without a contract and a new phone comes out, you would simply have to buy the new phone if you wanted it - you wouldn't be able to "swap" it.

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