Very wrong "data to back-up" number...

I just started a full back-up of my MacBook. It has a 120GB drive, with 70GB in use. Time Machine is saying its going to back up 412GB. Huh???? Why would it get something so basic so wrong?
I've gotten a couple of errors trying to back-up, so this is my third attempt. Maybe something didn't clear out from before? I'm using a Time Capsule, and on each failed attempt I've made sure TM wasn't backing up, then deleted the disk image used to hold the back-ups from the TC drive, reselected the TC, then initiated the backup. How do I completely start from scratch?

Hello there Cinfulle1,
I was thinking that either 1 of 2 situations is happening. First, recommend restarting the iPad. Sounds simple, but thats usually the first place to start when troubleshooting. iPhone, iPad, iPod touch: Turning off and on (restarting) and resetting http://support.apple.com/kb/ht1430.
Restarting your device
Press and hold the Sleep/Wake button for a few seconds until the red "slide to power off" slider appears, and then slide the slider.
Press and hold the Sleep/Wake button until the Apple logo appears.
Note: Reset your device only if you are unable to restart it.
Second, you get 5 GB free storage and if I understand correctly you doubled that to 10 GB. One of the items that iCloud backs up is the Camera roll and I am thinking that there may be a lot in there using up lots of space. Check out this article that outlines where to look on the iPad and configure your icloud backups named iCloud: Backup and restore overview found here http://support.apple.com/kb/ht4859.
You can select which applications back up their data and see how much storage space each application is using:
On your Home Screen, tap Settings
Tap iCloud
Tap Storage & Backup
Tap Manage Storage
Select the device you want to manage
If it does turn out to be the Camera Roll eating all the space, you could copy the content to your computer to back it up there, and turn off camera roll in the section outlined above.
All the best,
Sterling

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