Why does my time machine backup fail

my estimated backup size is 228GB (I have excluded files under options in time machine)
I have 319GB available on my time machine on a 320GB disk
when i try and backup i get the following message...
This backup is too large for the backup disk. The backup requires 337.88 GB but only 319.30 GB are available. Time Machine needs work space on the backup disk, in addition to the space required to store backups. Open Time Machine preferences to select a larger backup disk or make the backup smaller by excluding files.
i have erased all backups, erased and reformatted the disk.  I have heard time machine needs some 'extra space' but this is 40%+ more - this is ridiculous
the main issue is how the **** does it think the backup could be 337GB, when the estimated backup is only 228GB?!?!

I would just get a bigger external drive.
The actual size the backup requires should be correct..
I would suggest if you need a backup and TM is not working download SuperDuper and do a disk image to at least have a backup.. the size of that image will give you a far better idea of what size TM backup should be.. but remember TM grows and grows.. the disk should be 3x as large as the total used size in the computer.. smaller than that and TM will not really do what you want.
As for Mountain Lion failing.. yes.. ML has real issues.. reboot the network, starting modem first and then router/TC and clients.. a full restart is required and wait a couple of min between devices..
Look at the Mountain Lion discussions area for TM issues.. this is not actually a TC problem.. this is wholly and solely ML networking being about equal to two tins and a wet string.

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    Message was edited by: alexdrumz

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