Why does TM say the target drive is too small, when it's not?

I have 100GB free on the firewire drive. The Mac HD, after excluding some folders and partitions, is 92GB. The TM backup starts and runs, but then the size of the backup progress bar keeps changing (reads, backing up 8GB of 8GB, then 8.1GB of 8.1GB, etc. It keeps growing...) Anyway, when it get to the end I get "TM quit unexpectedly because the size was too big" or some such nonsense. I have used this drive and set-up successfully many times, but now its acting up. Is there some 'rule' about having enough free space PLUS a certain amount of "extra?"
Thanks!

Yes, there is.
TM adds about 20% to what it's going to back up for workspace it will need on the destination disk/partition. Usually, it won't even start backing-up if here isn't enough room.
But your TM drive/partition should be 2-3 times the size of what it's backing-up, to allow for a reasonable "depth" of backups, so TM can keep copies of items you've deleted or changed (or that might have gotten corrupted) for a few weeks, at least.
And if you have other data on that drive, it needs to be in a separate partition, as TM works best with it's own, exclusive space.
There should be some better messages in your logs. Download the +Time Machine Buddy+ widget from: http://www.apple.com/downloads/dashboard/status/timemachinebuddy.html. It shows the messages from your logs for one TM backup run at a time, in a small window. Copy and post the messages here (be sure to get them all, as sometimes they overflow the small window).

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