How can I estimate the final size of my .ipa?

Hello there,
As far as I know there is no "scietific method" to find out how many megabytes will be added to an application after it was uploaded to the Apple Store.
For example, my app in origin was 14.680.351 bytes and just when I've finished to upload it I got this email from the Apple Store:
"Dear developer,
The app binary listed below was 14 MB when you submitted it, but will be 21 MB once processed for the App Store. This exceeds the cellular network download size limit and would require your app to be downloaded over Wi-Fi".
bla bla bla
Obviously seen that the limit is 20 MB I worked a bit on my app and I managed to lower his size to 11.236.336 bytes.
Then I uploaded it again and this time I got no warning.
So in details my app, the firt time was 14.680.351 byes and has a lot of assets (external images, about 700 for 9.1MB in size).
The main swf was about 900K in size.
I have also a database of 1MB in size.
The air runtime I think is about 4MB
The second time the app was 11.236.336 bytes and I resampled the 700 images for a final size of 5.3MB.
The main swf was again about 900K in size.
The database still 1MB in size.
Plus the 4MB of the air runtime.
However, it is obvious that it would be better to know the final size  before putting it on the Apple Store, or at least it would be good to estimate it.
So please reply to this thread by posting your experience.
Thanks a lot
P.S. I forgot to mention that I've done all in Flash CS5.5

Hi therabbitwindfall,
I know that apps over 20MB are allowed to be downloaded over wi-fi, however, if I can, i prefeer to make the app available also to 3g.
So, in a nutshell, your equation is:
finalSize = application.ipa size   -    4,5MB  Compressed Air Runtime   +   10MB Uncompressed Air Runtime
I apply it now to my first upload:
finalSize = 14.680.351 bytes - 4.608.000 bytes + 10.240.000 byes  = 20312351 byes that is not 21 MB however I do not know exactly the size of the compressed air runtime and the uncompressed one.
mmmh, you can be right, thank you.
Anyone from Adobe can confirm this?

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