Forecasting the need of spare parts in Demantra

Hello everyone,
I would really appreciate if anyone who's had dealt with the following issue help us,
The thing is - we want to forecast 3 different kind of items:
1. Main items we sell - for examples - machines.
2. Accessories for machines we sell. A certian accessory can be used with several type of machines. (Cables, Batteries etc.)
3. Spare parts we need to keep in stock in order to provide repair services for our customers.
Each machine we sell has a different set of spare parts used when repairing.
The forecast for machines is a typical demantra model forecast.(sales forecast by the book).
My question is regarding the forecast for the spare parts we need for repairs.
We know that demand for a certain spare part is influenced by how many machines which use that part were sold to customers.
Also - it depends how common is the use of that part when fixing those machines that need service.
(some parts get broken more frequently etc).
Also since we provide fixed price insurance for customers, they dont "see" spare parts price as a factor.
(they dont naturally "buy" the parts).
How can demantra tie the forecast for the spare part to sales history of machines? Can demantra forecast service ?(which behaves alot different than sales). It is obvious that forecasting demand for spare parts with looking only at each part's history will not provide best forecast results.
Any insights anyone?
I'm pretty sure most implementations faced that issue - regarding the forecast of parts for service -
Would appreciate any reply,
Thanks alot,
Aaron.
Edited by: user10894682 on 07:30 05/02/2009

Hi Aaron,
Per my understanding,you sell machines as well as their accessories.So forecasting for them is by the book where you would be using the demand for machine as well as for accessories..
As far as the service parts' forecasting is concerned, Oracle has a seperate module for Service & Spare parts planning based on Demantra's forecasting engine.
Spare Parts Planning(SPP) has the following features:
1. Forecast accurately with built in Demantra's Forecasting engine
2. Replenish spares based on Single plan model
3. Distribute spares using SPP's plan
4. One single UI to carry out all 3 above processes for improved productivity
5. Forecasting based on Shipments, Spares Usage, and Returns
6. Plan based on Service parts failure rates calculations
7. Integrated with various APS modules like Demantra DM, CP, IO, and ASCP.
From demantra's perspective you may try out the following:
Since you provide fixed price insurance for customers,you would definitely be keeping track of the service provided like what spare was replaced and probably how many of the same spare have been replaced for a particular customer over a period of time. Also as per the insurance you must have specified that a particular spare would be replaced only x number of times within a span of say 6 months or 12 months.
You may utilize these information to classify the spares based on the frequency of use viz. very frequent, medium frequent and less frequent and associate some factor to it.You can club this information as well as the spare parts demand coming out of the BOM (bill of material) of the machine along with each part's history and come up with a forecast that can be more relied upon.
I hope this helps.
Regards,
Shekhar

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