Implementing demand forecasting with trend, growth and seasonality

I am trying to implement demand forecasts of materials with high demand frequency (behaves like FMCG) and which displays trend, growth and seasonality distinct for each market segment. I am familiar with SPSS where I use either Winter's or Holt's models, or even ARIMA models to generate robust forecasts.
Looking at MM03 there are a few options but some parameters are always reset to system defaults and I don't have many options models. We are running ECC 6.0.
Am I doing the right thing? Is there an easier way to implementing this. I appreciate any assistance.
Rodrigo

Hi,
I'm afraid that the complexity of the ECC regarding material forecasting is limited, and may not include all or some of the models that you mention. SPSS is a statistical tool by design, and probably has much wider statistical functionality.
For a comprehensive and statistically functional SAP demand planning tool you need to turn to APO DP.
Regards,
Mario

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    # ./imsimta test -rewrite -debug=level=4 -filter [email protected]
    Initializing mm_.
    Initializing mm_ submission.
    Checking identifiers.
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    16:21:04.24: mmc_determine_url beginning with pattern , xadr , mbox , subaddress
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    16:21:04.24: Queue area size 38574770, temp area size 405486
    16:21:04.24: 9643692 blocks of effective free queue space available; setting disk limit accordingly.
    16:21:04.24: 202743 blocks of free temporary space available; setting disk limit accordingly.
    16:21:04.24: mmc_address_to_tree: Parsing address.
    16:21:04.24: Right default: in.com
    16:21:04.24: Parsing address with null fixup.
    16:21:04.24: mmc_address_to_tree: Returning.
    16:21:04.24: Rewriting: Mbox = "postmaster", host = "projes.in.com", domain = "$*", literal = "", tag = ""
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    16:21:04.24: Rewrite: "$*", position 1, hash table -
    16:21:04.24: Failed.
    16:21:04.24: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, rewrite database -
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    16:21:04.24: Rewriting: Mbox = "postmaster", host = "projes", domain = "projes.in.com", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.24: Rewrite: "projes.in.com", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.24: Found: "$U%[email protected]"
    16:21:04.24: New mailbox: "postmaster".
    16:21:04.24: New host: "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.24: New route: "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.24: New channel system: "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.24: Looking up host "projes.in.com".
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    16:21:04.24: Checking reverse URL cache for: [email protected]
    16:21:04.24: Applying reverse URL pattern ldap:///$V?$N?sub?$R to: [email protected]
    16:21:04.24: mmc_determine_url beginning with pattern ldap:///$V?$N?sub?$R, xadr [email protected], mbox , subaddres
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    16:21:04.25: Search returned 'Success' (0)
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    16:21:04.25: Get domain failed with status -1
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    16:21:04.25: Mapped return address: [email protected]
    16:21:04.25: from_access mapping check: ||MAIL|l|[email protected]|
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    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "postmaster", host = "projes.in.com", domain = "$*", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$A$E$F$U%[email protected]"
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    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 1, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "postmaster", host = "projes", domain = "projes.in.com", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "projes.in.com", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$U%[email protected]"
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    16:21:04.25: New host: "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.25: New route: "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.25: New channel system: "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.25: Looking up host "projes.in.com".
    16:21:04.25: - found on channel l
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    16:21:04.25: mmc_sender_rewrite: Rewriting header line.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Parsing address.
    16:21:04.25: Right default: in.com
    16:21:04.25: Parsing address with null fixup.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Returning.
    16:21:04.25: Parse successful.
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out.com", domain = "$*", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$A$E$F$U%[email protected]"
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite failed, not envelope.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 1, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = "out.com", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = ".es", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "*.es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: ".es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$U%$H$D@TCP-DAEMON"
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    16:21:04.25: New host: "out.com".
    16:21:04.25: New route: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: New channel system: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: Looking up host "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: - Not found
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite rules result: [email protected]
    16:21:04.25: Checking reverse URL cache for: [email protected]
    16:21:04.25: Applying reverse URL pattern ldap:///$V?$N?sub?$R to: [email protected]
    16:21:04.25: mmc_determine_url beginning with pattern ldap:///$V?$N?sub?$R, xadr [email protected], mbox , subaddress
    16:21:04.25: Get domain information for: out.com
    16:21:04.25: dmap_locate_domain called with domain out.com
    16:21:04.25: Performing LDAP search on baseDN dc=in,dc=es scope 2 filter (&(objectclass=sunManagedOrganization)(|(associ
    atedDomain=out.com)(sunPreferredDomain=out.com)))
    16:21:04.25: Search returned 'Success' (0)
    16:21:04.25: 0 entries returned
    16:21:04.25: Creating negative cache entry for out.com
    16:21:04.25: Get domain failed with status -1
    16:21:04.25: Added tentative negative entry to domain match cache.
    16:21:04.25: URL generation failed, status = 0
    16:21:04.25: mmc_sender_rewrite: Returning.
    *** Debug output from rewriting a forward envelope address:
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Parsing address.
    16:21:04.25: Right default: in.com
    16:21:04.25: Parsing address with null fixup.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Returning.
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out.com", domain = "$*", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$A$E$F$U%[email protected]"
    16:21:04.25: Match, pattern = "out.com", current = "(*domaincheck*)"
    16:21:04.25: old state = not checked.
    16:21:04.25: Domain check on out.com.
    16:21:04.25: dmap_locate_domain called with domain out.com
    16:21:04.25: Negative cache entry found
    16:21:04.25: new state = fail pending.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite failed due to prechannel mismatch.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 1, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = "out.com", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = ".es", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "*.es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: ".es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$U%$H$D@TCP-DAEMON"
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    16:21:04.25: New host: "out.com".
    16:21:04.25: New route: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: New channel system: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: Looking up host "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: - Not found
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    backward channel =
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    header From: address = [email protected]
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    envelope From: address =
    name =
    mbox = ma
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    Extracted 733 address action list:
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    16:21:04.25: Right default: in.com
    16:21:04.25: Parsing address with null fixup.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Returning.
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out.com", domain = "$*", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$A$E$F$U%[email protected]"
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    16:21:04.25: Domain check on out.com.
    16:21:04.25: dmap_locate_domain called with domain out.com
    16:21:04.25: Negative cache entry found
    16:21:04.25: new state = fail pending.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite failed due to prechannel mismatch.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 1, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = "out.com", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = ".es", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "*.es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: ".es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$U%$H$D@TCP-DAEMON"
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    16:21:04.25: New host: "out.com".
    16:21:04.25: New route: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: New channel system: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: Looking up host "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: - Not found
    -13 expansion total.
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    16:21:04.25: mmc_wadr(0x0012b5e8,'[email protected]','[email protected]') called.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Parsing address.
    16:21:04.25: Right default: in.com
    16:21:04.25: Parsing address with local fixup.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Returning.
    16:21:04.25: Copy estimate before address addition is 1
    16:21:04.25: Parsing address [email protected]
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Parsing address.
    16:21:04.25: Right default: in.com
    16:21:04.25: Parsing address with local fixup.
    16:21:04.25: mmc_address_to_tree: Returning.
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out.com", domain = "$*", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$A$E$F$U%[email protected]"
    16:21:04.25: Match, pattern = "out.com", current = "(*domaincheck*)"
    16:21:04.25: old state = not checked.
    16:21:04.25: Domain check on out.com.
    16:21:04.25: dmap_locate_domain called with domain out.com
    16:21:04.25: Negative cache entry found
    16:21:04.25: new state = fail pending.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite failed due to prechannel mismatch.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 1, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "$*", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = "out.com", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed.
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "out.com", position 0, rewrite database -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewriting: Mbox = "ma", host = "out", domain = ".es", literal = "", tag = ""
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: "*.es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Failed
    16:21:04.25: Rewrite: ".es", position 0, hash table -
    16:21:04.25: Found: "$U%$H$D@TCP-DAEMON"
    16:21:04.25: New mailbox: "ma".
    16:21:04.25: New host: "out.com".
    16:21:04.25: New route: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: New channel system: "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: Looking up host "TCP-DAEMON".
    16:21:04.25: - Not found
    16:21:04.25: Copy estimate after address addition is 1
    Submitted address list:
    Address list error -- 5.1.2 unknown host or domain: [email protected]
    Submitted notifications list:

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  • How to delete forecast entries with zero current and original qty from a particular forecast set which span across multiple forecasts

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    Hi,
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    NOTE: Please mark the post as Helpful or Answered if the update has really helped you. This would also bring the thread to logical conclusion and will be helpful for the viewers.

  • Lync Implementation with different internal and external domain sync

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    Hi All:
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    hi
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    Message was edited by:
    Ganga

    Kannan,
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  • Part interchangeability with FFF class and FFFC - HERB material type

    Experts-
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    Hi
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  • How to use SOA Suite in conjunction with SOA Analysis and Design Tools

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    Learn About All Things SOA:: SOA India 2007:: IISc, Bangalore (Nov 21-23)
    Aligning IT systems to business needs and improving service levels within the constraints of tight budgets has for long been the topmost challenge for CIOs and IT decision makers. Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) provides a proven strategy to clearly address both of these objectives. Creating more agile information systems and making better use of existing infrastructure are two leading factors that are boosting SOA adoption across large, medium, and small Indian industries from the BFSI, Retail, Telecom, Manufacturing, Pharma, Energy, Government and Services verticals in India. If you are an IT decision maker belonging to any of these verticals, SOA India 2007 (IISc, Bangalore, Nov 21-23 2007) presents a unique opportunity to gather cutting-edge business and technical insights on SOA and other related areas such as BPM, BPEL, Enterprise 2.0, SaaS, MDM, Open Source, and more.
    At SOA India 2007, acclaimed SOA analysts, visionaries, and industry speakers from across the world will show you how to keep pace with change and elevate your IT infrastructure to meet competition and scale effectively. The organisers are giving away 100 FREE tickets worth INR 5000 each to the first 100 qualified delegates belonging to the CxO/IT Decision Maker/Senior IT Management profile, so hurry to grab this opportunity to learn about all things SOA. You can send your complete details, including your designation, e-mail ID, and postal address directly to Anirban Karmakar at [email protected] to enrol in this promotion that is open until 12 October 2007.
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    •     Anil Sharma, Staff Engineer, BEA Systems
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    •     Chaitanya Sharma, Director EDM, Fair Isaac Corporation
    A partial list of the sessions at SOA India 2007 include:
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    •     BPEL: Strengths, Limitations & Future!
    •     MDM: Jumpstart Your SOA Journey
    •     Governance, Quality, and Management: The Three Pillars of SOA Implementations
    •     Building the Business Case for SOA
    •     Avoiding SOA Pitfalls
    •     SOA Governance and Human Interaction Management
    •     Business Intelligence, BPM, and SOA Handshake
    •     Enterprise 2.0: Social Impact of Web 2.0 Inside Organizations
    •     Web 2.0 and SOA – Friends or Foe?
    •     Achieving Decision Yield across the SOA-based Enterprise
    •     Governance from day one
    •     Demystifying Enterprise Mashups
    •     Perfecting the Approach to Enterprise SOA
    •     How to Build Cost Effective SOA. “Made in India” Really Works!
    For more information, log on to http://www.soaindia2007.com/.

  • Corrected demand forecast(   ???)

    hi
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    how does it arrive??  Is it  a aggregated value of first 2 demand types. plz lend a hand
    thanks

    Hi,
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    Hope this helps.
    Thanks,
    Satyajit

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