Need to reduce `target-player` to support users with older Flash versions?

Question

Right now we are currently compiling ZeroClipboard using the Flex 4.6 SDK, which has a minimum (and default) "target player" version of 11.1.  I am uncertain if this is preventing users with Flash 10.x from utilizing ZeroClipboard but the documentation I found related to this certainly suggests that may be the case:
Use the target-player compiler option to specify the version of Flash Player that you want to target with the application. Features requiring a later version of Flash Player are not compiled into the application.
One reason for setting the target Player version is if you are unsure of Player usage penetration rates and want to choose a Player version that is lower than the most recent one. Another reason is if your users are locked in to a particular Player version, such as when they are on an intranet and cannot upgrade.
If users with older versions of Flash (i.e. 10.x) cannot use ZeroClipboard because of this, I would've expected more bug reports on it by now.  However, as Adobe is pretty good about pushing Flash Player updates out, perhaps most users have already upgraded to 11.x.
Can anyone confirm or reject this hypothesis?  Obviously our goal would be to support as many realistic user configurations as possible (i.e. support both Flash Player 10.x and 11.x with a single SWF).
Resources:
Targeting Flash Player versions
About the application compiler options
Backward compatibility
ZeroClipboard task to investigate this topic
Any help would be much appreciated.  Thanks in advance!
Sincerely,
     James Greene

Answer 1

Just to add to this thread the links I posted in the other one:
I can't speak to anecdotes like parents' or friend's computers, but in general Flash Player 10 is extremely widely available -- installed on over 95% of the world's desktops & laptops.  There are more people still using IE 6 than there are people lacking FP 10.  Even in enterprises, which tend to upgrade very slowly, FP 10 is probably on well over 75% of computers by now.
Catalyst projects truly require Flex 4, which truly requires FP 10... there's not much getting around that.  If you absolutely must support FP 9, one option is to use Catalyst purely as a mockup/prototyping tool (for user testing, client/executive approval of designs, etc.) and then build the final app from scratch in Flex 3.  You won't be able to directly reuse most of the material you created in Catalyst, but it can still be a valuable tool in this workflow -- we've heard from many people that Catalyst lets them create mockups far more quickly than tools they've used in the past.
Hope that helps!
- Peter