Applecare+ ... decision day

Today Nov14 is the last day to add applecare+ to any 4S bought by preorder last month.
Been thinking about pros/cons over the weekend. The old applecare was not worth getting period, that was a no brainer. But this new + version adds a few wrinkles. The standard 1yr warranty does not cover accidents... but you can still get a 4S replacement for $199 via OOW (out of warranty) service:  http://support.apple.com/kb/index?page=servicefaq&geo=United_States&product=ipho ne
I paid by Mastercard which doubles the standard warranty, but doesn't apply until after 1 year. So if i had an accident after 1yr, I can still get a 4S replacement for $199 (OOW) at the apple store and file a claim through mastercard (which usually succeeds).
But if i get Applecare+, I pay $99 upfront and hope nothing happens. But if accident#1 occurs, i would've paid a total of $148 (99+49) for a replacement and hope nothing happens again. And if accident#2 occurs, i only pay a grand total of $49. No more discounts after that; every replacement costs $199 (OOW) again.
So basically my logic is.... don't get applecare+ and pay $199 for every accident....or get it and pay only $148 and $49 for two accidents. And no matter what scenario, after 2yrs, nothing is covered, but that's within the next upgrade discount cycle so it's meaningless.
Even after just 1 accident, you would think one would be extra careful from then on. So you still spend less for a single accident, $148 vs $199. After two accidents, total cumulative payout is $197 vs $398.
I'm leaning towards getting applecare+ since i use my 4S naked. Anyone care to share opinions or present another scenario i overlooked?

Nevermind I just talked myself out of it again. If i don't get applecare+ today, the $99 i "saved" would go towards the OOW replacement cost of $199, bringing the net cost down to $100 for accident#1... vs $148 with applecare+.
So after two accidents, total net payout is actually $197 vs $299. Only a hundred bux difference.. which is what you pay for upfront anyway... doesn't seem worth it now.

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