Selection exclusions not considered in statistical forecasting

HI,
Our planning object structure has total 6 characteristics and some of them are product, location, division and region. Product has product class as a navigational attribute.
We have created 2 selection ids in planning book.
id1: display "division" and entered some divisions and excluded some regions and product class
id2: display "division" and entered some divisions and excluded some regions.
When we ran statistical forecasting, the statistical models ( moving average model used but we tried other models too) the system is still forecasting for the excluded selections in planning books.
Here are my questions:
1. In case of id1 since there is a navigational attribute, can we use navigational attributes in statistical forecasting.? I remember not but not totally sure...any supporting documentation or references are helpful.
2. In case of id2, I can not imagine why the excluded values are forecasted..even the POS characteristic value exclusions are ignored. I think this is a bug...did any one see this kind of behavior? any suggestions or OSS notes are appreciated.
Thanks.

Hi,
Your aggregation level explains your results.
What is happening is that based on your selection criteria, divisions are getting selected.
Since your aggregation level is division, hence for whatever divisions have got selected as per your selection criteria, forecasting would be done based on history aggregated at division level. Now it doesn't matter whether you maintained exclusions at any other level or not.
Result would be forecast for the selected divisions at an aggregated level. Now, this forecast would get disaggregated to ALL the CVCs which contain these selected divisions, and the disaggregation would happen as per the calculation type that you maintained for the stat forecast.
If you don't want the forecast to be disaggregated to levels below division, then do the forecast at a lower level of aggregation, meaning select all the characteristics in "aggregation" corresponding to the levels which you want to exclude.
Hope this explains the situation to you.
One way you can say that the "display" characteristic (topmost row) that you specify in selection when you load data in interactive planning corresponds to the aggregation level that you maintain in background.
Thanks - Pawan

Similar Messages

Selecting the Planning Level for Statistical Forecast in S&OP on HANA

Hello together,
we currently face an issue regarding the statistical forecast in S&OP on HANA:
The customer wants to implement an S&OP process containing the two steps statistical forecast (automatically calculated) and sales forecast (manually determined). The planning level of the statistical forecast should be higher than the planning level of the sales forecast, i.e. the statistical forecast is calculated on a higher planning level and then disaggregated to be an input for the manually determined sales forecast.
Since it doesn't seem to be possible to disaggregate any key figure below its base planning level we need to have the lower sales planning level as base planning level in all key figures, including the input and output key figures of the statistical forecast.
When running a statistical forecast with a defined forecasting profile, the planning level used for the forecast seems to be the base planning level of the input/output key figures defined in the forecasting profile.
However, we need to define a higher planning level for the statistical forecast in order to have a better data base for recognizing trends and sesonality. In APO DP it is possible to define the planning level for the forecast when running/scheduling the forecasting job. Is this also possible in S&OP on HANA? Can we define the planning level for the forecast in the forecasting profile or when running the forecast from the Excel AddIn? I tried to use the field "Filter" in the forecasting profile as it listed all the planning levels (as well as a lot of other things, we don't know where they come from), but the forecast was still carried out on the base planning level.
Do you have any other idea where to define the forecasting planning level that is different from the base planning level of the input/output key figures?
Thank you in advance,
Jonathan

Hi Bert,
thank you for your fast answer. I checked the forum again and found this post:
Question about Statistical Forecast
However, I don't really get how the disaggregation is meant to work; the suggestion seems to be to calculate a forecast on an aggregated level, i.e. with input and output key figure with an aggregated base planning level, and then disaggregate it "somehow".
Do you have any idea how this disaggregation might work and what other steps I have to consider?
It seems as if I'd have to define a whole bunch of new key figures and have more than one output key figure but no input key figure for the statistical forecast, which doesn't make sense in my eyes.
Actually I was looking for a solution where I can define my forecasting profile with both input and output key figure on the lower planning level and then insert the level I want the forecast to be done at either in the profile as well, or even more flexible when running or scheduling a forecast. Defining more key figures any time I need another forecasting level does not appear very comfortable. Is it meant to be like that or is there another way to reach the goal mentioned above?
Cheers,
Jonathan
Edit: The mentioned thread contains some valuable information on how to disaggregate key figures. However, the really tricky decision is how to define the disaggregation ratio.

Statistical Forecast not saved when generated with background planning job

Hello All,
The system I am working on is SCM 5.0 Support pack 15.
When I execute the planning job in the background to generate a statistical forecast, the job completes sucessfully, I have a spool that shows the forecast profile was executed (Auto Mod 2) with the appropriate model messages and the last two messages are 'Data saved successfully' and 'No data has been changed; data must not be saved', but when I go into interactive planning to view the forecast, there is no forecast in my key figure.
My planning area has the forecast settings maintained for Statistical Forecast, Corrected History, and Ex-Post Forecast key figures. My forecast profile is looking at the History key figure and Statistical Forecast key figure. My time series has been initialized for 36 months of History and 18 months of forecast. My planning book is set to have the Statistical Forecast Key figure as output only. My activity and planning job are set to execute in the appropriate planning book (in order to see the forecast alerts I have selected) with the specific selection profiles (no navigational attributes), and the aggregation level set (no navigational attributes).
The only way for me to see a forecast is to change the Statistical key figure setting in the planning book to output/input, execute the forecast job in the background, and then go into interactive planning. Am I missing something? Any help you could provide would be greatly appreciated.
Regards,
Roxane H.

Hello Senthilrajan,
I have executed the forecast in the foreground using the same planning book as the background job and same forecast profile (Auto Model 2)with a selection from the batch run (pulled a selection from the spool list) and it generated a forecast with the same messages as my background job except for the last two lines (Data saved successfully and No data has been changed, data must not be saved) that I was able to copy back into interactive planning. I then used this selection in the background job to execute the forecast in the background and did not see a forecast in interactive planning and received the same messages as before -
Data saved successfully
No data has been changed, data must not be saved
The reason we run the forecast in this book is to allow our Demand Planners to view the forecast alerts by book and/or selection directly in interactive planning instead of having to get their from the Alert Monitor. It has worked in the past and is currently working in the same environment just with a different planning book, selections, forecast profiles, and data. It generates a forecast with no 'No data has been changed, data must not be saved' message and the forecast is written in the key figure and is viewable in interactive planning with out manipulating the key figure to be input/output (it is set to output only).
Any further assistance you can provide would be greatly appreciated.

The statistical forecast not for the current month

Hi All,
The statistical forecast is done in the monthly buckets.I would like to run the statistical forecast job at the beginning of the month but the statistical forecast value for the current month must be not changed. I've tried to fix the key figure for the current month but the new forecast is not saved at all. Do you know how to achieve it?
Best regards

Hi Guz,
You should be able to do that using the 'offset' functionality in the Forecast profile screen...
Thanks,
Subash

Statistical forecast varies in back ground and foreground !

Hello friends,
When i generate the Statistical forecast at *product and plant* level in foreground it gives some values, then generate in background at *product and plant level* again it gives different values.Could you pl through me some lights on me.
Regards,
siva

Hello Siva，
Maybe you have different aggregation level for your foreground forecast and background job.
Please first check your 'aggregation level' setting in /sapapo/mc8e.
Or maybe you're using different forecast profiles for your foreground and backgournd.
Please check the settings in /sapapo/mc8t of the forecast activity.
Do you have "always use job profile" setting on?
You can also check the background run's result in SM37's spool file, to see on what level did it execute, and what forecast profile it used for each planning object.
You can check note 372939 to compare the results. In this note, you will have great tips on how to compare both results. Besides that, note 374681 will give you detailed information on how to have the selections when using mass processing.
Also, check the note 546079, which contains more informations on how to have Interactive and batch forecast to run equally.
Best Regards,
Ada
Edited by: Ada Lv on Jul 29, 2011 3:22 PM

Statistical Forecast cannot be deleted

Hello everybody,
How do I go about replicating the issue in the system's test environment.
But the main issue I am having is that statistical forecast cannot be deleted. Normally this should be done via transaction /SAPAPO/MSDP_FCST1 - Lifecycle Planning .
While selecting the phase out profile - the material number disappears. Not sure if this is a known issue or not.
As a workaround I deleted the statistical forecast via SDP94 - univariate forecast execute manual phaseout - the statistical forecast disappeared. But over the weekend run the statistical forecast was populated again.
Thanks.
Edited by: apo_dp_consultant on Jan 8, 2012 4:38 PM

Hi,
You should use /sapapo/md74 to delete the forecast.
Select all the 3 - "display log", "delete orders" and "all planning segments".
Also, take out the setting "test mode".
What exactly is your requirement and your issue?
For some materials, do you want that forecasting should not take place? And is it that you don't to forecast these materials due to certain reasons, or because these materials are phased out, you want that no forecast should take place?
Answer to above questions would help in guiding you in the right direction.
Thanks - Pawan

Statistical Forecast Models Using Forecast Assignment Table

Hello all. I need some help.
I am trying to setup a background process to execute Statistical Forecasts in background using the models stored in the table /SAPAPO/DP_FCST2
Can anybody offer advice with regards the best approach.
Is there a specific Forecast Strategy or User Exit that should be used?
Thanks

Hello Christopher
Control Parameter in the activity needs to be setup correctly.
Additionally please refer this old thread
Forecasting interactively and background in DP
Just want to add some additional information on this topic -
In Planning Book, Goto Settings => Forecast Profile => Assignments: There are three options available -
1) Save assignment of selection for forecast profile - This allows users to save changes to original forecast profile
2) Save assignment with unique forecast profile - (this allows for the planner to fine tune a model but then save it to a unique GUID instead of over-writing the original profile itself. Typically, DP Planner are expected to use this option.
3) Do not save assignment and forecast profiles - This also allows users to over-write the original forecast profile settings without saving the assignment
Additionally if this /SAPAPO/FCST_GUIDS parameter is set to “X” then it will result into system saving any forecast profile changes as a unique forecast profile(GUID based).
Also when generating the forecasting (using option#2 above )interactively, it is important to use same planning levels(selection id) as defined in aggregation levels in background job.
Hope this will help.
Thank you
Satish Waghmare

Statistical forecast - automatic model

Dear Experts,
I have specific question regarding statistical forecast in DP
i am using automatic model selection -2
outlier correction - expost method
mape upper limit set to -20 % in diagnosis group
forecast profile - uni variant
now i have
Invoice History -
Jan-13
13-Feb
13-Mar
13-Apr
13-May
13-Jun
14-Jul
13-Aug
13-Sep
13-Oct
15-Nov
13-Dec
105
204
244
455
22
45
25
67
76
68
89
100
now i run statistical forecast
what will be the result
Jan-14
14-Feb
14-Mar
14-Apr
14-May
14-Jun
14-Jul
14-Aug
14-Sep
14-Oct
15-Nov
14-Dec
105
204
244
455
22
45
25
67
76
68
89
100
my question is does jan 13 invoice history is taken for jan 14 forecast ?? like wise for other month too
please advise how the system use time bucket and to calculate the forecast
i also have question regarding ex-post method and median method and none
whats the difference between these methods
Regards
Raju

Hi Raju,
Take a look of the SAP documentation. Here you have the detail of what the Auto Model Sel 2 is doing:
Automatic Model Selection Procedure 2 - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library
Anyway, maybe because I don't understand exactly what the system is doing or maybe because I have found inconsistencies, I would not use the automatic model selection models in APO DP.
Take a look of these articles talking about some inconsistencies:
Getting Best Fit to Work in SAP? - Demand Planning
Best Fit Forecasting in SAP DP - SAP Planning
As you can see in the first article, Auto Model Sel 2 uses to copy the data.
If you are trying to identify the model, take a look of the Sales Pattern, then run different methods, play with the parameters (alpha, beta, gamma) and determined what should be the model and the set of parameters base on the MAPE.
For ex-post method (constant), you can read this article:
APO DP - Forecast Model Parameters: First-Order Exponential Smoothing
Looking at the SAP help documentation you can see the difference between Ex-post and Median methods:
Ex-Post Forecast - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library
Median Method - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library
Kind Regards,
Mariano

Statistical Forecasting - Directing Forecast Results to Spool

hi,
We are executing planning jobs ( /n/sapapo/mc8g) for Statistical Forecasting. The planning jobs have been set up through /n/sapapo/mc8e with the required parameters and forecast profiles attached.
Post successful completion of the planning jobs, we get the results in the following manner :
1. Forecast Results are getting stored in the specified key figure in the interactive planning book
2. Job execution messages and information on parameters such as MAPE, MAD etc are directed to the spool.
Is there anyway in which we can also direct the forecast results to the spool ?
regards,
Anirudha

hi Luiz,
Basically I wanted the forecasting run results to be directed to the spool to be viewed at a later point of time.
What we are currently doing is trying out the various models for statistical forecasting ( using Univariate profiles ). SInce we are having to execute a large number of runs, it is pretty time consuming as we have to execute it for a specific brand, note down the forecasted numbers ( populated in the interactive planning book for the forecast horizon ) and then move on to the next model / brand.
To simplify and speed up the process, we wanted to try out the following :
1) Create the required number of univariate profiles with various models and parameters
2) Create Planning Activities ( with the corresponding profile attached ) and Planning Jobs
3) Execute the planning jobs through mc8g
4) View the job output in the job spool at one go
The issue we are facing is that the forecast results are getting written only to the interactive planning book. And not directed to the spool. I have listed the sample spool output of the planning run job below. If you observe the spool, only run related info and MAPE, MSE etc are listed.
How do we write the forecast results ( for the forecast horizon ) to the spool also ?
Sample Spool
10.03.2010              Run planning job in the background
Charact. Combination(1 Frm 1):
DELM ADV
Following forecast profile selected: Mil_Forecasting
Required Time for Forecast in Seconds: 0.007
Univariate forecast successfully executed
Seasonal test called
Number of periods: 12 , Autocorrelation: 0.359 , Limit: 0.30
Season test is positive
MAPE: 49.78 MSE: 787878.39 RMSE: 887.63 MPE: 28.64-
MAD: 485.02 Error total: 1895.38
Data saved successfully
regards,
Anirudha

Open items not considering in credit check.

Dear Experts,
We have implemented credit management in our new role out company code with the same credit controlling area for both company codes.
As per our configuration at the time of sales order creation, credit limit has to be checked and check the open items and oldest open items. It is working fine in old company code, but in new company code its not considering the open/old open items its only checking the credit exposure value. But the old company code its checking the credit exposure and open items and old open items.
In OVA8 we have configured the below way
selected the Dynamic check box - reaction C
selected the Cretical fields check box - reaction A
selected the Open items check box - reaction A
selected the OldestOpen items check box - reaction A
The above credit management is working fine in quality for both company codes, but in production its working fine only old company code.
I have already checked the all relevant configuration and requests, there is no issue in configuration.
Please let me know the possibilities for not considering the open items for credit check

Hello
You are absolutely right , the automatic credit control is at credit control Area level and not at company code level. Need to know few things from your end.
why business has not set up the new credit control area, when new company code has been configured. I think this would have made more sense .........
however its bit strange that sales recevables are not getting considered in the credit check, only in production ....... I think you need to keep your search on in SDN as well as try to search for any sap not in Service market .......
Once you get the answer; hope you update the thread ........
wish you luck in your search ......
Cheers
Big Screams ...........

System is not considering Planned Delivery time

Dear Gurus,
As iam planning for the month of January and running the MRP,schedulelines are getting generated but system is not condering Planned Delivery time maintained in the material master ie. 7days.Following is the example:
I have a FERT-X with a component A-1PC in its BOM and its planned delvery time from vendor is 7 Days.If iam running the MRP on 13/12/2010 for FERT-X 100 PCS for January1,2011 then the schedule lines are getting generated for for component A is on 01/01/2011.But PDT is maintianed in material master is 7 days and same has been maintianed in vendor inforecord.But system is not considering it.
Kindly help to resolve the issue.
With Regards.

I have one ROH which has two different vendors.
Two scheduling Agreemnt with target qty 100000 kg each.
Two different Vendor info record with Min. order qty maintained.V1-1000Kg,V2-6000Kg.
One source list with two vendors and with respective scheduling agreement.
Quota arrangement is there in which SOB is maintiained 50:50.
I hv the requirement of 3084 kg of ROH.
I run the MRP and two diiferent schedule lines are getting generated with 50:50 qty as mentioned in Quota arrangement.
Not considering the minimum order qty maintiained in vendor info record.
The above process is correct
Only One doubt In Quota Arrangement?
IS two schedule line is created after MRP run?
Generally System will select a vendor Whose Quota value is less
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Edited by: Sundaresan . E. V on Dec 14, 2010 3:26 PM

Error msg, "Maximum selection does not contain value 9999999999.

Hi, I am getting this error wile doing Reclassification of HFM Movement.
Error msg, "Maximum selection does not contain value 9999999999 of subassignment HFM CD2 & Asset Type "
in the Data Monitor, ( in Reclass Net Reserve). While running BCF task for a company for period 16/2009
Actually, We have converted the consolidation area from XX(2009) to YY(2010).
Before this task, user has performed the balance carry forward.
My Analysis is as follows:-
Method Used in this Reclassification
RECYX (Reclassify HFM Movement at YE lvl 10)
     TRIGGER
     Items : 100-299, 9900-9999
     HFM Movement Type : O200 to O300
     Posting Level : 10
     TARGET
     Items : 100-299, 9900-9999
     Move : O100C
     Posting Level : 10
     HFM CD2 and Asset type : Ticked
After TEST run in UCMON, the error message comes :-
The "HFM CD2 & Asset Type value 9999999999" is not maintained in Breakdown Categories Y500, Y700 etc.
Breakdown categories in Workbench
Maintained as "OPTIONAL, Initialized value allowed".
Single Selection
1A
1B
AR
GA
Default Selection
99999999999
BCS CUBE
HFM CD2 & Asset Type - coming blank
LOTR
HFM CD2 & Asset Type - Coming blank
Please help to go forward.
In Anticipation,
Deepankar Jain

Thanks a lot Dan for the reply.
Yes, the single selection is 1A, 1B etc, I agree that including this default value 9999999999 in single selection will resolve this issue, but the BREAK DOWN TYPE is OPTIONAL, that means It will also consider a blank value, right?
Also, In the method defined for RECLASSIFICATION in workbench, in the TARGET parameters, the" HFM CD2 and Asset Type" is blank but the "DEFAULT is TICKED" which makes it a mandatory derivation rule.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Your replies on it are highly appreciated.
Thanks and Regards,
Deepankar

Credit check not consider in case of expired Bank Gurantee

Dear Experts,
We are using credit control for Bank Guarantees also, when i have created bank Guarantees(through F-49)we are giving Expiry date for BG in Due field. It is working fine for credit check for customer.
But after expiry of BG also system considering BG amount for credit control, system suppose to not consider the BG amount since BG got already expired.
Why system taking consideration for expired BG's for credit check?
How to overcome the above issue?
Useful answer will be rewarded without fail.
Edited by: akdevavarapu on Feb 16, 2010 5:24 AM
Edited by: akdevavarapu on Feb 16, 2010 5:36 AM

Hi there,
If you want your system to check for the credit limit to be checked, go to transaction OVA8, select your combination of Credit control area, credit group and risk category and press details.
Set the field, No of days (released documents are still unchecked) to 0 or the days what u need.
For eg. if u set the date to 10, the credit check wont happen for the next 10 days from the last checking date.
So if u want ur system to check for credit once your BG expires, u have set the date to 0.
Thanks
Krish

Target sost calculation not considered Current cost estimate in KKBC_ORD

Hi All,
We have an case wherein it observed that target cost calculation on SFG is wrong
in KKBC_ORD where system does not considered the current cost estimate.
We have all the necessayry customisation in place for Target cost version 0 for current cost estimate.
Below is detailsed case.
1 Process Order created in Dec 2011
2 Price Released to Mat master on 01.01.2012
3 Goods movement,Operation confirmad Material Issues, FG qty delivered @ std cost 0n 04.01.2012
4 Order Technically completed (TECO)
5 KKS1/KKS2 will be done at month end.
We know that In Process order, after deliver of FG the target cost on FG is not getting calculated,target cost will be updated only after calculating variance. it does
not calculate after delivery of finished goods, On Execution of KKS1/KKS2 variance will be calculated the target cost on FG and will be updated.
In process order (COR3 --> Cost analysis) Target cost ,Actual cost and Planned cost are calculated based on the following:
Total Plan Cost = Std Cost the material required to Produce X Planned Qty of the required material
Target Cost = Std Cost the material planned to Produce X Std Qty of material required to produce, for Produced Actual Qty
Actual Cost = Std Cost the material planned to Produce X Actual Qty of material consumed, for Produced Actual Qty
The variance is calculated on SFG and assemblies based on the difference between actual and target cost in KKBC_ORD. During creation of process order, the plan cost
will be updated with the valid standard cost upon the creation.
The target cost on SFG and Assemblies is only generated when there is good receipt from production order into inventory.
The target cost is generated using the valid / recent costing run for the correspondence SFG in KKBc_ORD.
All other target costs showed in COR3 (Menu Go to > Costs > Analysis) or KKBC_ORD before doing KKS1/2 is only statistical- However in our case Traget cost calculated
on SFG in KKBC_ORD not relevant with current cost estimate.
However Actual cost and Planned cost Calculated correctly.
Actual Cost= Current Standard costof the materilal(5.624,88)X Actual Qty (13.693)=77.021,48
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However Target cost is not considering the current cost estimate;It should be - Current Standard cost of the materilal(5.624,88)X Target Qty(13.958,124)=78512.07.
But Errorneously Target cost is showing 67.383,59 which causing unfavorable variance to standard.
It should be 78512.07-77.021,48= 1490.59 favourable var to standard in KKBC_ORD.
Any help,suggestion and input would be highly appreciated.
Thanks with Regards
Subrata

hi
target cost is your standard cost* actual confirmed quantity, not the standard quantity required
the variance calculated will be always the actual debit to the production order- actual credit of the production order
your actual credit for the process order is std cost* actual quantity delivered to the inventory= Current Standard costof the materilal(5.624,88)X Actual Qty (13.693)=77.021,48
actual debit to the process order is total actual cost which you can see in COR3 report .
By the way for which period you have calculated variance, target cost will be calculated based on that months standard cost
krishna

Rounding quantity field in scheduling agreement not considered in JITK

Hello ALL,
I would like to consult to you a scenario I am facing when it comes to creating a scheduling agreement (VA31) and maintaining a Rounding Quantity (field ABLFZ) in it.
When using the standard LZ type scheduling agremeent, the Rounding quantity is considered when creating a delivery in VL10.
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Can you please tell me what causes the case in LZJ scheduling agreement?
Thank you all in advance.

Hi,
This field is not available for Scheduling Agreement. It is only available for Purchase Order.
Even you will not get this in Field selection also.

Selection exclusions not considered in statistical forecasting

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